Service Plays Saturday 09/19/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux

#112 - NCAA - 3 units on Pittsburgh -7

#115 - NCAA - 3 units on Boston College +7

#161 - NCAA - 3 units on Buffalo +4

#176 - NCAA - 4 units on BYU -7 -120

#178 - NCAA - 5 units on Arkansas -1

#190 - NCAA - 3 units on Oregon State +1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
***ARMY (-7.0) 28 Ball St. 10
09:00 AM Pacific, 19-Sep-09
I'll take Army in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars from -9 1/2 to -11.

3 Star Selection
***BYU (-7.5) 34 Florida St. 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 19-Sep-09
I'll take BYU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 or less and for 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.

Strong Opinion
Arizona 21 IOWA (-5.0) 20
12:35 PM Pacific, 19-Sep-09
Arizona has won their first two games by respectable margins of 19-6 over Central Michigan and by 34-17 over Northern Arizona, but the Wildcats have been much more impressive than those scores indicate. The Wildcats have out-gained their opponents by an average of 6.7 yards per play to just 4.1 yppl and Central Michigan went on to win 29-27 at Michigan State last week after struggling to move the ball against Arizona's tough defense (just 3.6 yppl). The Wildcats' defense should limit a mediocre Iowa attack that's averaged a modest 5.5 yppl in games against Northern Iowa and Iowa State. Iowa struggled to beat Northern Iowa in their opener and their 35-3 win last week at Iowa State was largely due to a +4 in turnover margin (although the Hawkeyes did out-gain ISU 5.9 yppl to 4.7 yppl, which would normally result in a 10 to 14 point win). My ratings favor Iowa by just 4 points in this game and Arizona applies to a solid 72-26 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Iowa is just 1-11 ATS the last few years after consecutive wins. I'll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at +4 or more and I'd take the Wildcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

Strong Opinion
Bowling Green (-2.5) 28 MARSHALL 20
04:00 PM Pacific, 19-Sep-09
Bowling Green has played well in 2 games under new coach Dave Clawson, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons' defense was solid last year and wasn't expected to be so with just 3 returning starters on that side of the ball, but that inexperienced unit yielded just 4.8 yards per play last week in a near upset of a good Missouri team and they gave up just 4.7 yppl in an upset of Troy in week 1. That unit isn't going to be quite as good without leading tackler SS P.J. Mahone, who has been suspended indefinitely, but they should be good enough to limit a sub-par Marshall offense that has averaged just 4.8 yppl in their first two games against Southern Illinois and Virginia Tech (those teams would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack). Bowling Green is equally challenged offensively, but Marshall's defense gave up 4.7 yppl and 28 points to a bad Southern Illinois attack in week 1 (the Salukis would average about 4.2 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A team) and were stampeded by Virginia Tech last week (allowed 467 rushing yards at 10.2 yards per rushing play and 613 total yards at 9.0 yppl). Bowling Green applies to a solid 93-40-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Falcons have now covered the spread in 11 consecutive road games. I'll consider Bowling Green a Strong Opinion at -3 or better.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RAS

AZ St... UNDER 52' ... 2 Units
Bama... UNDER 52 ... 1
Rut ... UNDER 52 ... 1
A&M ....OVER 57' ... 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness Legend Play

Oregon state

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack

Premium Plays
Matchup: Ohio State at Toledo
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Ohio State (-20.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Ohio St Over Toledo (Cleveland) - Last met in ‘98, OSU 49-0 (-37). This is a HG for Toledo but Cleveland is Tressel’s hometown and 90% of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. Toledo does have a great situation as they are off an impressive Friday night whipping of Colorado (we had an easy Friday Night Marquee Winner on the Over) and catches OSU off of their last minute loss to USC with the B10 opener vs IL on deck. OSU is 14-3 as an AF. New UT HC Beckman was OSU’s DB coach in ‘05 and ‘06 and he has a veteran QB in Opelt who avg 371 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. The Rockets’ D is T-#2 NCAA with 6 int. OSU allowed true frosh QB Barkley to lead the Trojans 86/14pl scoring the gm winning TD with 1:05 left and also all’d Navy 2 late TD’s to nearly tie it up. The Bucks were outFD’d 18-10 and outgained 313-265 LW as OSU had just 90 yds after taking a 10-7 2Q lead. OSU has to focus on the run gm which is #81 NCAA (121 ypg, 3.5). UT should be confident after knocking off Colorado and beating Michigan in the Big House LY.



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Matchup: Louisville at Kentucky
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Louisville (+14 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Louisville (+) Over KENTUCKY - This game is played for the Governor’s Cup and has huge stakes in terms of recruiting. UL is 7-3 in this series (visitors 9-6 SU) but the Cats have won the last 2 (both outright upsets). UK has never beaten UL 3 years in a row. Last year UL failed to score a TD for the 1st time since 2000 and UK (+3) won 27-2 despite only a 210-205 yd edge. Both teams are off a bye. In week 1, UK dominated Miami OH 42-0 with a 488-188 yd edge. UK QB Hartline threw for a solid 222 (67%) with a 2-0 ratio. UL beat FCS Indiana St 30-10 with a 419-101 yd edge. UL QB Justin Burke (PS#12, NCSt transfer) will make his 1st road start and threw for 223 yds (55%) but with an 0-2 ratio in the opener. Burke missed his 1st 8 passes but hit 17 of 23 after that. UL has 3 DL returning this week (missed opener). UK is on a 1-5 run as a HF and in this series UK has only been favored twice the L10Y and lost both outright.



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Matchup: So. Cal at Washington
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Washington (+20.5 -110)
Line Source: STRATOSPHERE
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (+) Over USC - New UW HC Sarkisian helped the Huskies earn their 1st win in 16 tries LW vs Idaho as QB Locker (287 ypg, 60%, 5-1 ratio) has proven to be a legit passing threat over the L2W in the new Husky offense. Sarkisian was the Trojans’ OC the L2Y so he has great knowledge of the USC players and preparation. LY in the 1st gm after the announcement of Willingham’s termination, USC shutout UW 56-0 at the Coliseum as the Huskies failed to get past the Trojan 45. USC is just 1-6 ATS in P10 road openers and is off their huge, last minute win in Columbus as true frosh QB Barkley (195 yds, 48%, 1-1 ratio) matured quickly against a stellar OSU def (lost LY at Oregon St as a 25 pt fav the week after Ohio St). The Trojan def has been dominant the L2Y as they have kept 7 of their L/10 opp under 200 yds incl surrendering just 184 to UW LY. They are, however, just 2-7 ATS in the 2nd of B2B RG’s, and meet an energized UW program that is the most improved team in the country.



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Matchup: Michigan St at Notre Dame
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Notre Dame (-10 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

NOTRE DAME Over Mich St - The visitor had won 7 in a row SU prior to LY’s MSU 23-7 win in East Lansing. ND had 3 TO’s deep in MSU terr and missed 2 FG’s. ND has faced the Spartans 8 straight years after playing Mich. MSU’s 6 str wins in South Bend is a record for an Irish opponent. Both teams were upset victims LW with the Irish allowing Michigan to drive 57 yd for the gm winning TD with :11 left after Weis called 2 passes in the series prior which saved UM 2 TO’s. The Irish finished with 27-21 FD and 490-430 yd edges and allowed a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clausen is #3 NCAA pass eff avg 326 ypg (66.7%) with a 7-0 ratio. WR Floyd (11, 320) is #2 NCAA rec ypg despite missing the last 6:22 LW while getting stitches in his knee. CM scored 9 pts in the final :40 capping a 72 yd TD drive, rec an onside kick missing a 47 yd FG but getting a 2nd chance to hit the gm winning 42 yd FG with :03 left to beat MSU for the 1st time S/’92. The Chips finished with 27-17 FD, 33:25-26:35 TOP and 418-316 yd edges. Cousins is #6 NCAA in pass eff avg 174 ypg (66%) with a 4-0 ratio despite being victimized by several drops. He QB’d the entire 2H LW and is likely to get his 1st road start here. The Irish have edges on both sides (#4-57 off) and (#21-29 D) and need to snap MSU’s streak if Weis wants to stay on the Irish sidelines.



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Matchup: Tulsa at Oklahoma
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Oklahoma (-16.5 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures.

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Matchup: San Diego State at Idaho
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: San Diego State (-3 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

San Diego St Over IDAHO - SDSt leads the series 2-1 SU/ATS. The HT is 3-0 SU/ATS in this series (‘96, ‘02 and ‘06). This is UI’s home opener in the Kibbie Dome, which is in stark contrast from the sunshine and grass field of the NFL’s Qualcomm Stadium that the Aztecs call home. The Vandals are hosting just their 3rd non-conf FBS game in the L/5Y having gone 0-2 SU/ATS in such a matchup with losses to NI in ‘07 (42-35, -3) and WM in ‘08 (51-28, +8). UI is on a 6-2 ATS run after ending a 4-18 ATS skid from mid-’06 thru mid-’08 and the Vandals are on a current 3-0 ATS run at home. SDSt has the edge on off (#92-107), def (#95-112) and ST (#67-111). LY SDSt led 38-3 after 3Q outgaining UI 603-351 in a 45-17 win (-11’). SDSt QB Lindley hit 24-38 for 433 yds and 4 TD and the Aztecs picked off three passes. SDSt is just 5-25 SU on the road (lost L/8) and 0-3 ATS as an AF over 6 yrs. The Aztecs haven’t been an AF S/‘07 and haven’t covered as one S/‘03. Idaho has a trip to NI on deck while SDSt has its MWC opener at Air Force up next.



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Matchup: Nevada at Colorado State
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Nevada (-3 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Nevada Over COLORADO ST - CSU leads the series 8-1 SU but is 3-5 ATS. The Rams won all 8 meetings prior to their 28-10 loss (+3) in Reno in ‘06 in the last meeting. UN has the edge on off (#28-98) but CSU has the edge on ST (#103-115). Nevada’s “pistol” offense is capable of piling up lots of yds and pts and features a dual-threat QB, ‘08 WAC Off POY Kaepernick and two RB’s (Taua and Lippincott) who have led the WAC in rushing in each of the L/2Y. UN is coming fresh off a bye, however, following a 35-0 shutout loss in the season opener at Notre Dame where the Wolf Pack suffered just its second shutout loss in 343 gms (S/’80). UN was dead last in the NCAA pass D in ‘08 allowing 312 ypg and the Irish threw for 322 yds and 4 TD, incl strikes of 70 and 88 yds. UN is looking to rebound from an 0-4 ATS skid and has lost 3 of its L/4 gms SU. CSU started its season off with a bang defeating in-state rival Colo 23-17 (+10) in Boulder marking the first time the Rams won a game there in 23 yrs, but CSU needed a 4Q TD to squeak past FCS Weber St LW by 1 (24-23). The Rams have won 5 consec gms for the first time S/’02 and are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less (8 pts) under 2nd yr HC Fairchild. CSU is on a 5-1 ATS run going 4-2 SU during that stretch. UN has a home game with Missouri on deck while CSU has its MWC opener at BYU up next.



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Matchup: SMU at Washington St
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: SMU (-6 -110)
Line Source: M Resort
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Smu Over WASH ST - 1st meeting. Wash St has won 11 straight vs non-conf teams in Pullman by an avg of 25 ppg. These two combined for a 1-22 record vs FBS teams in ‘08 but both are much improved. Only 1 of Wash St’s losses was by less than 25 while SMU had 4 losses by 7 or less and almost beat Houston and Tulsa in CUSA play, but blew late leads. The Mustangs are off a huge road win at UAB (4H LPS Winner) that snapped a 21 game losing streak to FBS schools. SMU jumped out to a 28-7 1H lead and withstood a furious Blazer rally stopping a 2pt conv with :13 left for a 35-33 win. The Mustangs ended up being outgained slightly (448-437) but forced 5 Blazer TO’s. SMU now has 9 int in 2 games (8 all of LY). QB Mitchell threw for 353 (60%) and 3 TD, but did throw 2 int. WSU fell to Hawaii 38-20 in a “neutral” game (Seattle). The Cougs trailed 35-6 at the half and were outgained 626-403 on the night. The lone bright spot for the Cougars was RB Montgomery who rushed for 118 (6.9). This is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Mustangs who are an AF for just the 3rd time S/‘03, but they do have a bye on deck. WSU has mighty USC on deck, so they see this as their best chance for an early season win. WSU all’d 489 pass yds to a similar Run n’ Shoot attack LW, and SMU now has some swagger, so expect Wazzou’s losing woes to continue.

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Matchup: Connecticut at Baylor
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Baylor (-10 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

BAYLOR Over Connecticut - LY QB Griffin (PS#34) made his 1st road start on a Fri Night game in a cross country trip to Conn and did well (4 ttl TD) as Baylor (+13) led 28-24 mid-4Q and had a 377-340 yard edge. This time Griffin is exp and Baylor has 16 ret sts, is off a bye and catches UC in an unusual trip to Texas (lost to SMU 30-31 ‘89). LW UC gave up 12 4Q pts incl a GW safety with 1:32 left in their 12-10 loss to NC. The Huskies lost their QB Frazer 3Q with a knee injury and UC may be playing w/o their top LB Lutrus (check status). The UC def is all’g 258 ypg and will have to carry the team as the new offense develops. After rushing for 259 (5.3) in Wk 1 UC ran for 72 (2.1) LW. Baylor had a 17 pt 3Q lead and held on to defeat Wake on the road 24-21 (+2’) in Wk 1 outgaining the Deacons 366-269. Griffin threw for 136 (63%) with a 1-0 ratio and rushed for 41 (3.2) while RB Finley had 91 yds (6.5). Although nearly even on def (UC #41-45), Baylor has the off edge (#42-96) as well on ST’s (#15-69). Baylor returns three 1st Tm B12 defenders and 8 starters on defense. Conn is 1-7 as an AD and 0-4 SU/ATS traveling to the deep south being outscored 18 ppg. This is Baylor’s home opener (4-0 as HF) so the crowd will be excited as the Bears look to avenge LY’s loss.



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Matchup: Bowling Green at Marshall
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Marshall (+3 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

MARSHALL Over Bowling Green - Marshall was 4-2 vs BG in MAC play from (‘97-’04). BG is 19-8 after a loss. Marshall has 16 ret sts and has bowl aspirations and BG has exceeded expectations early as they have just 10 ret sts and a new HC. This is in the 2nd straight AG for BG, as the Falcons are off a strong showing at Mizzou. BG led most of the game before the Tigers scored 14 unanswered in the 4Q to get a 27-20 win. BG was only outgained 353-320 by a Mizzou tm that put up 442 yds and 37 pts vs Illinois in the opener. BG Sr QB Sheehan is avg 273 ypg (68%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Geter has 148 (5.1). MU hung tough in the 1Q vs 14th ranked VTech, but the Herd was outscored 28-7 in the 2Q and lost 52-10. MU allowed a school-record 444 yds on the ground (8.4) and were outgained 605-252. The lone bright spot for the Herd was RB Darius Marshall who returned from a 1 game suspension and rushed for 109 (6.4), incl a 61 yd TD jaunt. BG has a huge home game vs a ranked Boise squad on deck and Marshall needs a win before heading into conf play (Memphis), so we like a Marshall squad that is 8-2-1 as a home dog since 1999.



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Matchup: Florida St at BYU
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: BYU (-7 -110)
Line Source: MIRAGE
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

BYU Over Florida St - These 2 have met twice, both BYU losses in ssn opening Pigskin Classics in ‘91 and ’00. BYU is 5-3 SU hosting BCS teams inc winning the L/2 by a combined 79-7. FSU is making a rare trip into altitude coming from sea level and traveling almost 2,100 miles. They have just 5 starters back on D and only 3 scholarship Sr’s on off. FSU had a short week LW and it showed as they barely got by JSU. QB Ponder is avg 309 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. RB Ty Jones has 99 rush yds (4.5). This is BYU’s first home game and they already have 2 wins under their belts and have won 18 straight home games. BYU had a 245-164 yd edge 1H vs then-#3 Okla when Bradford was healthy. QB Hall is avg a solid 319 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Kariya has 105 rush yds (3.6). BYU has already beaten Oklahoma and is confident with QB Hall while FSU is coming off a game vs FCS Jax St in which they trailed until in the 4Q.



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Matchup: FAU at South Carolina
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: FAU (+21 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Florida Atl (+) Over S CAROLINA - This is a top situational game as FAU is coming off a bye while SC is between SEC games. SC also has a short week ahead as it plays Ole Miss Thursday. SC is 7-3 as a HF and 7-3 as a DD HF and this is their home opener. FAU usually uses these games (0-3 vs SEC avg loss 35 ppg) getting a lot of players action vs a quality team which helps them in conference play, but Schnellenberger talked tough about beating Texas (backfired) and may want a signature win. In their only meeting in ‘06 SC won 45-6 (-28’). SC has wins by just 10, 9, 7, 14, and 10 vs non-BCS foes in Sept and that includes 2 vs FCS Wofford. LW SC allowed 41 pts vs GA, the most since 2006, but held the advantage in yds 427-308 and FD 26-16. SC had a game winning pass broken up at the 7 with :22 left. FAU is worth the look with the generous points here.

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Matchup: Georgia at Arkansas
Time: 7:45 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Arkansas (-1 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

ARKANSAS Over Georgia - UGA is 30-5 on opponents home fields under Richt. In the last meeting in ‘05, UGA pulled out a 23-20 win in Athens but Ark covered easily as 19’ pt dogs. Georgia is 8-1 SU vs the Hogs. Ark is 10-6 ATS in SEC openers but LY was crushed 49-14 by Alabama as a 9 pt HD and is now 2-6 SU in them. UGA is 3-6-1 as an AF while Petrino has won his last 3 as a HD with 2 outright upsets incl LSU LY. Arkansas is the fresher squad off a FCS foe and a bye and UGA battled #9 OSU on the road and just battled for a 41-37 win over SC in their home opener LW and travels again. Ark HC Petrino admitted that his team had already spent time preparing for this gm in Aug prior to their opener vs Missouri St. Ark QB’s Mallett and Wilson set a school single gm record with 447 pass yds in their 48-10 win over Missouri St and Petrino used top RB Smith sparingly (4 carries, 43 yd) to keep him fresh for SEC action. UGA QB Cox is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and RB Samuel has 152 (4.3).

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Matchup: Texas-El Paso at New Mexico St
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Texas-El Paso (-13.5 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Utep Over NEW MEXICO ST - UTEP leads the “Battle of I-10” series 49-35-2 as these two interstate rivals are just 45 miles apart. These 2 have combined to avg 63 ppg in the L/9 with the L/3 decided by 6 pts or less. The HT in this series is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS, however, the visitor has covered each of the L/4 gms. NMSt has won the L/2 gms outright as a 7-pt dog in both ‘07 (44-34) and ‘08 (34-33). NMSt is on a 2-6 ATS skid and is 8-19 (just 4-19 vs FBS teams) SU and 8-15 ATS S/’07. UTEP has the edge on off (#78-120), def (#104-117) and ST (#92-100). The Miners are on a 3-1 ATS run in road openers but 0-5 ATS as an AF S/’05 with 4 outright losses. NMSt has another rivalry game on deck with a trip to in-state foe New Mexico while UTEP travels to Texas next week.



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Member Plays
Matchup: Boston College at Clemson
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Clemson (-6.5 -110)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

CLEMSON Over Boston College - BC had won 5 in a row in this series but Spiller had a schl rec (for RB) 105 yds rec and then-interim HC Swinney got his 1st win 27-21 (+3’) on the road. This matchup has been decided by a ttl of 13 pts the L4Y. In last trip here, #18 BC upset #15 CU 20-17 on a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left, stealing the Atl Div Title. BC has a 2 QB’s still trying to determine a starter and they’re making their 1st road trip to a very hostile place. BC is 11-2 ATS as an AD but does have their 3rd HC in 4Y. BC posted their 2nd str lopsided win LW vs a non-BCS. QB’s Shinskie and Tuggle have comb for 389 yds (43%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has rushed for 181 (5.3). CU is 4-11 ATS as an ACC HF. LW WR Ford and RB Spiller showed their blazing spd after GT had taken a 24-0 lead thanks to 2 ST’s scores as Spiller took off for a 63 yd TD pass and Ford went 77 yds for a TD (both track tm). QB Parker is avg 210 ypg (47%) with a 5-2 ratio. RB Spiller has 99 rush yds (4.1) and 4 rec (17.3) despite missing most of the opener. WR Ford has 8 rec (22.4).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF WEEK #3


10 MICHIGAN STATE over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
MICHIGAN STATE 31 - *Notre Dame 28

Both teams off disappointing losses last week, but see definite edges with double-digit dog Michigan State. Few teams have played Notre Dame tougher, as the Spartans have a 10-2-1 spread mark in last 13 against ND, including a 6-0 SU mark in South Bend in that string. Young ND defensive front seven has had a bit of a rocky start, yielding
5.1 ypc against Nevada and Michigan. MSU has a crew of speedy, young backs who can take advantage of any mistakes. Spartans will likely be healthier this week as well, as C Nitchman (knee injury in opener), WR Dell (19 ypc LY; nagging shoulder injury) and speedy frosh RB Baker (missed CMU game nursing a sore knee) could all return
to action this week. ND offense clicking, but MSU can trade points.

10 *TEXAS over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*TEXAS 45 - Texas Tech 17

Can’t resist playing the revenge angle in this game. Texas Tech’s last-second Crabtree TD to win last year’s meeting still stings all Longhorn players, coaches and fans. That was Texas’ only loss of the season and cost it a spot in the BCS title game. Despite TT’s 55-10 win vs. Rice, new Red Raider QB Taylor Potts making first start on road, and receivers such as NFL first-round draftee Crabtree aren’t easily replaced. Texas has put up 50 ppg in first 2 games behind Heisman-hopeful QB Colt McCoy, and the Red Raider defense hasn’t been truly tested. Surely Longhorn safeties Gideon (who had a sure interception go through his hands with 8 secs. left in LY’s game) and Thomas, who combined for 16 tackles last season vs. TT, will have something to prove.


10 MIDDLE TENNESSEE over *Maryland
Late Score Forecast:
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 30 - *Maryland 23

CKO sources in the ACC recommend not to be overly concerned about any revenge motive Maryland might have after losing at MTSU last season. That’s because Terps have plenty of other things to worry about these days, namely, a young “D” allowing 44 ppg that’s forcing even mascot Testudo to cover his eyes after CAA rep James
Madison punctured UM’s stop unit for nearly 300 YR last week at Byrd Stadium. Those defensive shortcomings almost contributed to a shocking loss vs. FCS-level Dukes and will make it difficult for Terps to reverse a debilitating 2-13 slide their last 15 as chalk. Sun Belt sources aren’t even sure Blue Raiders will need any help from oddsmakers
now that dynamic jr. QB Dasher has proved such a quick study in new o.c. Franklin’s spread (Dasher 231 YP and 89 YR in MTSU’s dominating 31-14 win last Saturday vs. capable Memphis).


10 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Fla. Atlantic
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Fla. Atlantic 10

SEC sources report South Carolina players greatly encouraged by their valiant comeback try in 41-37 loss at Georgia (trailed 38-23 in 3rd Q), failing to convert on 4th-down from the Bulldog 4-yd. line in the final minute. And with ‘Cock HC Spurrier demanding a razor-sharp performance prior to visit from rising Ole Miss, compelled to lay 3
TDs vs. outmanned FAU, bereft of proven defensive playmakers (3 starters back; allowed 490 yds. in 49-3 blowout at Nebraska). Expect USC’s evolving jr. QB Garcia (313 YP vs. Bulldogs) and his plethora of quality receivers to play pitch-and-catch vs. vulnerable Owl 2ndary, with a RS frosh manning the key SS position. Meanwhile, Owls
stationary, pocket-passing 6-5 sr. QB R. Smith, who gave himself a failing grade for his Husker effort, unlikely to have “passing” marks vs. aggressive USC stop unit, spearheaded by head-hunting LB Norwood. Spurrier trounced the Owls 45-6 in 2006. Deja vu in 2009. Note, FAU 5-13 as DD road dog since ‘04.

NINE-RATED GAMES: NAVY (+8) at Pitt—Middies at their best as a road dog (31-16)...WESTERN MICHIGAN (-17) vs. Miami-O.—RedHawks
(outscored 90-0) still looking to “dent the dish” in 2009; Western back at home after two losses visiting Big Ten teams... KANSAS (-21) vs. Duke— Jayhawks packing in the crowds in Lawrence; KU now 21-5 last 26 when favored...UAB (+7) at Troy—Blazers have the QB and coaching to exploit Trojan defense that has suffered losses in the back seven..

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE FOOTBALL PROPHESY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

TEXAS over Texas Tech RATING: 1
BOWLING GREEN over Marshall RATING: 1
AUBURN over West Virginia RATING: 2
STANFORD over San Jose State RATING: 2
AIR FORCE over New Mexico RATING: 3
BUFFALO over Central Florida RATING: 4
CINCINNATI over Oregon State RATING: 5
ARIZONA over Iowa RATING: 5


SATURDAY
ARMY 27 - Ball State 13 - (12:00) -- From the heights to the depths for Cards,
who went 12-0 in LY's regular season. Just 26 pts & 25 FDs TY (NoTexas &
NwHampshire), running for 13 yds LW. Cadets have 566-110 RY edge so far,
but 2 INTs taken the distance killed them in loss to Duke. No such gifts in this.

PURDUE 48 - Northern Illinois 24 - (12:00) -- Realize this bucks Wise Points,
even with Boilers in Oregon/NoDame sandwich, & in off wrenching loss (missed
2-pt try in final 1:01). But check 36:19-23:41 time edge, as well as Bolden's
357 RYs so far. NIU moves it, behind RB Brown, but this is its 3rd straight RG.

MICHIGAN 45 - Eastern Michigan 20 - (12:00) -- Rodriguez detractors are a
dwindling lot, with unexpectedly quick start, behind RB Minor, & QB Forcier,
who was 23-of-33 & 2 TDs in upset of NoDame (winning pass in final 0:11).
Just opposite for Eagles, who went down to N'western in last 6 seconds. Pass.

PITTSBURGH 31 - Navy 30 - (6:00) -- Let's see. Visitor is 11-5 ATS in Middie
tilts, but dog is 23-8 ATS in Panther games. Pitt RB Lewis now at 319 yds & 5
TDs, & check QB Stull with 3 TDs vs Buffalo. But allowed 500 yds in that win,
with 27 pts off TOs. Navy +64½ ATS last 5 games, & 32 unanswered pts LW.

SYRACUSE 20 - Northwestern 19 - (7:00) -- Mere 23-yd edge for 'Cats in
narrow escape vs EastMich, winning in final 0:06, as 3-TD favs. Dog now nice
24-7 ATS in NW games, so why not a shot with 'Cuse, despite horrid run "O"
(2.4 ypr), with just 15 & 13 FDs. But that Orange "D" is vastly improved. Tight.

Boston College 27 - CLEMSON 25 - (12:00) -- Would you believe that Tiger QB
Parker's 5 TD passes to date average 45 yds. CU in off heartbreaker in final
minute, after overcoming 24-pt deficit at GaTech. Eagles ceding only 155 ypg,
but that's vs N'Eastern & Kent. This one always goes to the final gun, & again.

PENN STATE 48 - Temple 10 - (12:00) -- Two straight losing ATS efforts for Nits,
who are averaging 39.5 ppg in last 8 lined HGs. Just 107 RYpg vs LY's 102nd
& 87th rated run "D"s, but they've destroyed Owls last 2 hosters, & this a home
series. Sure, Iowa revenger is directly on deck, but Lions prepare for it in style.

NORTH CAROLINA 26 - East Carolina 22 - (12:00) -- Sixteen starters return for
ECU, but unimpressive. Just 13 FDs & >270 yd deficit at WVa. No rushing &
Pinkney anemic 16-of-39 LW. Tars also seeking overland game: 35 yds (0.9
ypr) in taking UConn (safety the difference). Dog 20-7 ATS in UNC tilts. Ditto.

WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 - Miami-Ohio 10 - (7:00) -- Hiller (259, 266 PYs) is
Broncs' only "O", with just 60 RYs (1.1 ypr) in 2 games. But Miami has sweet
90-0 pt, & 929-382 yd deficits thus far, & is allowing 42 ppg in last 7 contests.

VANDERBILT 27 - Mississippi State 17 - (7:00) -- Just 210 yds for 'Dores vs
LSU, which allowed 478 preceding wk (Washington). And Vandy came from
433 RYs to 122. But same for Bulldogs, whose "D" ceded 390 RYs in loss to
Auburn, after holding opening foe to 62. Lost last 2 RGs by 38 pts ATS. Pass.

COLORADO 30 - Wyoming 20 - (3:30) -- Want nothing to do with this one. CU
in off 54 pt "D" effort at Toledo. Can't run (2.8 ypr TY), with QB Hawkins having
bell rung late in that one. 'Pokes needed 5 picks to take Weber, & managed no
"O" TDs vs Texas. No TD passes as of yet. Nothing but negatives. Stay away.

Arizona 24 - IOWA 17 - (3:30) -- IowaSt/PennSt sandwich for Hawkeyes, who
turned 4 TOs into TDs in 35-3 win over Cycs. Note just a 1-yd RY edge vs ISt.
'Cats averaging 35.6 ppg since start of LY, & check a 611-141 RY advantage
TY, with Grigsby motoring at 325 yds. Held potent CentMich to 6 pts. Upset.

AKRON 23 - Indiana 20 - (3:30) -- Zips came from 28 RYs (PennSt) to 250
(MorganSt). And from a 329-yd deficit to a 309-yd edge. Who wouldn't? Indy
in mere 6 & 5 pt wins vs likes of EastKy, & WestMich. Decent run "D", but 158
pt ATS deficit in last 13 outings. QB dual: IU's Chappell vs UA's Jacquemain.

KANSAS 44 - Duke 14 - (12:00) -- Katie, bar the door! Jays lighting it up again,
behind QB Reesing & RB Sharp (227 RYs), with 583-78 RY edge. An 11-1 HF.
Sure, Imps are also solid in this setup (Wise Points), but check only 89 RYs in
2 gms (1.9 ypr), vs likes of Richmond & Army. QBs Lewis & Renfree not enuff.

SO MISSISSIPPI 31 - Virginia 10 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Eagles hurt us on all three
services LW, winning by mere 7 pts despite 23-11 FD, 409-194 yd edges, with
QB Davis 23-of-33 & Fletcher >100 RYs. Just 7 FDs for Cavs vs TCU, while
never snapping the ball in the red zone. 19 FDs in 2 games, allowing 8 sacks.

Utah 30 - OREGON 24 - (3:30 - ESPN) -- Sixteen straight wins for Utes, but yet
to cover (2½, 4 pt misses). Cain decent 38-of-61 & Asiata at 251 RYs, & "D"
still solid (13.8 ppg last 9 tilts). Ducks in luckout win over Purdue (TDs on INT
& fumble returns; 95-yd deficit), tho QB Masoli double threat. Utes make it 17.

So California 45 - WASHINGTON 14 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Classic 96-yd drive won
it for Troy at OhioSt, with frosh QB Barkley seemingly seasoned vet. SC held
Bucks to 10 FDs, 88 RYs, & 11-of-25 overhead. Note 342 RYs in opening win,
& 450-95 pt edge since losing to OregSt LY. Huskies snapped 15-game losing
skein LW, but missed cover in final 0:13. Allowing 34 ppg in last 17 contests.

UCLA 27 - Kansas State 13 - (10:15) -- Moldy 'Cat "O" now at 18 ppg vs likes of
UMass & Lafayette, losing to latter in final 0:32. Thus, logic dictates that KSt
won't do much vs Bruins, who've allowed only 20 FDs & 324 yds over their last
7 quarters. Just 12 FDs & 186 yds for Uclans at Tennessee, but 4 takeaways.

VIRGINIA TECH 33 - Nebraska 24 - (3:30) -- Kicking ourselves for not jumping
on Hokies in bounceback effort vs Marshall. Nearly quadrupled "O" after sorry
opening day loss (from 64 to 444 RYs, behind Wilson & Williams). Huskers
30+ pts 15 of last 18, with Lee now 42-of-57. Try an 87-12 pt edge vs Sunbelt.

NOTRE DAME 33 - Michigan State 31 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Still no running for MSt,
without Ringer. Saw 27-20 lead with 0:35 left, turn into 29-27 loss to CentMich,
in possible look-ahead. Irish must regroup off losing in last 0:11 at Michigan.
Clausen 62-of-86 for 1,052 yds & 12 TDs last 3 games, & 1,000 ND yds TY.

Ohio State 45 - Toledo 17 - (12:00 - @ Cleveland) -- USC/Illinois sandwich for
Bucks. Not exactly scintillating in late loss to USC (10 FDs, 88 RYs, & Pryor
just 11-of-25). Rockets' Opelt now at 660 yds & 9 TDs, & check Toledo's 624
yds vs Colorado. But if Bucks are recovered, have to see a solid bounceback.

AUBURN 34 - West Virginia 17 - (7:45) -- Call reverse of LY, despite emergence
of Mountie QB Brown (24-of-31 for 390 yds & 4 TDs) in rout of ECaro (272 yd
edge). Had Tigs atop all 3 services LW, & loved nearly 600-yd effort vs MissSt
in 35-7 windup. Have run for 691 yds behind Tate & McCalebb. Revenge call.

FLORIDA 48 - Tennessee 10 - (3:30 - CBS) -- Quite a turnaround for Vols, who
came from 657 yds to just 208, with QB Crompton coming from 5 TD passes
to 3 INTs. UT was held below 15 pts 7 times LY, with LW dredging up those
inept efforts. Not proper medicine in facing this juggernaut, which has 455-117
pt edge in last 10 lined gms (+160½ ATS). Bucking Gators is simply pure folly.

Smu 33 - WASHINGTON STATE 23 - (5:00) -- Cougars still not ready for prime
time. Now a 638-150 pt deficit in lined games since '08 onset, & in off allowing
626 yds. And try 7 TOs. Ponies stopped tying 2-pt try in final 0:13 in upset of
Uab. Still no running, & allowing 40 ppg last 9 road gms, but had 4 picks LW.

IDAHO 31 - San Diego State 27 - (5:00) -- Aztec QB Lindley bombed Vandals in
'08 (Wise Points), but SDSt lost on the road, where they've allowed 44 ppg in
last 5 travellers. Ranked 116th in running LY, & managed only 39 RYs in only
'09 lined contest. UI covered vs Wash in final 0:14, & check 279 Enderle PYs.

COLORADO STATE 26 - Nevada 25 - (5:00) -- Don't like this one a bit. Rams
nearly got caught, off short week, emotional win over Colorado, taking Weber
by single pt. Check only 26 combined FDs for ColoSt thus far, but its run "D"
has allowed only 29 & 58 yds (1.5 ypr). 'Pack "D": 37 ppg in last 22 lined tilts.

Bowling Green 37 - MARSHALL 17 - (7:00) -- Only one way to go when Falcs
take the field, with the visitor. Guest now +181½ pts ATS last 14 BG tilts, & try
24, 13 pts covers this year, with QB Sheehan at 545 PYs. Just a 33-yd deficit
at Mizzou. Herd ranked 103rd in total "D" LY, & allowed 444 RYs LW. Falcons

California 33 - MINNESOTA 14 - (12:00) -- Two straight 4th quarter comeback
wins for Minny, but note 24-14 FD deficit vs AirForce. At minus 89½ pts ATS
in last 4 HGs. Cal has Oreg & USC on deck, but rolling it up behind Best (281
RYs on only 17 carries TY: 10-4 ypr). Bucks 13-3 host ATS edge in Bear gms.

Buffalo 33 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 20- (7:30) -- A 215-yd deficit for Knights LW,
but only 7-pt loss. Ouch! Have just 25 FDs for the year, & the visitor is +76 pts
ATS in their last 5 games. Bulls spectacular 9-0 ATS away, & with QB Maynard
tossing for 400 yds, 4 TDs vs Pitt, it should continue. UB at 31 ppg last 11 tilts.

OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Rice 13 - (7:00) -- Pity the Owls, catching the 'Pokes
off Houston shocker, in which they allowed 32 FDs & >500 yds. And now both
Hunter & Bryant are ailing. But Rice (3rd straight RG) can't contain anyone
(49.5 ppg), has no running gm, & triumverate of QBs still highly questionable.

OKLAHOMA 45 - Tulsa 34 - (3:30) -- Jones for Bradford resulted in 3 TDs & 286
PYs, in OU 64-0 rout of IdahoSt, which lost in near identical fashion (50-3) at
ArizSt previous wk. 'Canes continue on, with Kinne now at 37-of-55 (521 yds),
tossing for 4 TDs vs NwMex. And allowing just 1.6 ypr TY. Stay under spot.

BAYLOR 34 - Connecticut 17 - (5:00) -- Rested Bears continue to impress, and
now +107 pts ATS in 10 of last 11 lined affairs (+53½ pts last 3 HGs). Griffin
decided edge over UConn's Frazer (4 INTs TY). Nothing wrong with Husky run
"D" (1.4 ypr), but off wrenching loss, & no Brown, who ran wild vs Baylor in '08.

TEXAS A&M 35 - Utah State 14 - (7:00) -- Both had LW off, after dissimilar
openings. Ags a dedicated squad, off LY's down campaign, with QB Johnson
a nice 31-of-49 for 349 yds in 41-6 rout of NewMex. Ags a decent overland gm
in loss to Utah (233-221 yd deficit), with 148 RYs from Turbin (11.4 ypr). Pass.

KENTUCKY 38 - Louisville 17 - (12:00) -- Cards were 89th in scoring "D" in '08
but opened with shutout win over IndianaSt. But it ends here, as they've been
on a steady decline since Petrino moved on in '07. 'Cats a balanced 245 RY,
243 PY attack in 42-0 annihilation of Miami-Ohio & took the 'Ville by 25 yr ago.

Iowa State 27 - KENT STATE 17 - (7:00) -- Not the best of "D"s here as Cycs
have allowed 40.3 ppg in their last 10 lined affairs, while Flashes have been
stung for >37 pts 6 times since LY. State took advantage of the TO in LY's win,
& in off mere 191-190 RY deficit vs Iowa. Edge to Cycs if mistakes kept down.

BYU 34 - Florida State 20 - (7:00) -- Quite a defense unveiled by the Coogs thus
far, holding mighty Oklahoma to 265 yds, & just 162 in walkthrough at Tulane
LW (23 & 33 pt covers). And Hall a solid 50-of-70 for 638 yds in those 2. FSt
sent it in in 19-pt effort vs J'VilleSt (15 FDs), & will have to be at their best hr.

ARKANSAS 31 - Georgia 16 - (7:45) -- Rested Hogs return17 starters, after
piling up 591 yds vs MoSt, with Mallett & Wilson tossing for 447 yds. Should
move it vs 'Dawgs, whose formerly impenetrable "D" has been exposed of late
(>36 pts 5 of last 8). A 10 FD, 119 yd deficit vs SoCar, with rushing "O" a ??

Air Force 38 - NEW MEXICO 13 - (7:30) -- Tough loss for Falcs at Minny, as they
had 261-108 RY edge, only to lose on fumble return TD (4-pt ATS loss). Now
at 735 RYs for the year. Own this series of late (5-of-5), & catch Lobos at true
nadir. Just 1.5 ypr TY, along with 10 sacks, in their 85-16 combined pt deficit.

Utep 27 - NEW MEXICO STATE 13 - (8:00 - CBS) -- Not interested in this one.
Ags lost without Holbrook, altho they did present Walker with his first win in
squeaker over PrairieView. Can't contain the run, but just 4 RYs for Utep in
LW's loss, so a wash. Miners 0-2 ATS, by 15½ & 15. What does it all mean?

TEXAS 51- Texas Tech 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Best finish of the year in LY's heart
stopping Raider win, in which they amassed 551 yds. New Tech QB Potts off
7 TD effort in rout of Rice, & now at 860 PYs for the year. 'Horns this year: wins
by 59-20 & 41-10, but 4, & 1 pt ATS misses. McCoy: 654 yds. Steers normallly
roll at home over Raiders, who have a 47 ppg "D" in their last 3 RGs. Revenge!

Hawaii 31 - UNLV 30 - (11:00) -- Rebs came within 7 ticks of upsetting OregSt
so have the firepower behind Clayton, who is highly respectable 31-of-43 for
the year. 'Bow "D" not to be trusted (34 ppg last 7 RGs), but check 453 PYs &
3 TDs for Alexander in win over WashSt (1st BCS road success in 7 attempts).

STANFORD 40 - San Jose State 10 - (9:00) -- Card must regroup off blowing
17-3 lead over WakeForest, losing in final 0:02. Have overland game in Gerhart
(>200 yds), & passing game in QB Luck (23-of-34). Spartans have incredible
593-31 RY deficit so far, & are at 9 ppg in last 5 outings. Card take advantage.

Cincinnati 34 - OREGON STATE 20- (6:45) -- Check Bearcats' 117-18 pt edge,
along with a 1,142-469 TY advantage thus far. Pike: 6 TD passes; RB/WR
Gilyard: 4 TDs LW. Just 37 pts from a 33-4 spread run! Beavs got 166 RYs
from Jacquizz, & 25-of-31 showing from Canfield LW, but just narow 2-pt win

ADDED GAMES

RUTGERS 37 - Fla-International 10 ALABAMA 41 - North Texas 13
MARYLAND 23 - Middle Tenn St 21 SO CAROLINA 43 - Fla-Atlantic 17
Uab 24 - TROY 21 LSU 38 - Louisiana-Lafayette 3
ARIZONA STATE 27 - Louisiana-Monroe 16

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE RED SHEET

SEPTEMBER 19, 2009

AUBURN 37 - West Virginia 17 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 4, and is now minus 6½. Did
you really expect anything else? The Tigers have served us well thus far, & despite the
Mounties in a rare dog role (only 2nd such setup in last 3+ regular seasons), we are not
about to jump from this moneymaker. Auburn has topped 300 RYs in both outings (691 to
date) behind Tate & McCalebb, & shouldn't be contained by the comparatively green
WestVirginia "D" line. Tigs proved their mettle LW, with total domination, after falling behind,
17-14, with just 4 minutes left in half, winning 49-24. Color this "revenge".
RATING: AUBURN 89

TEXAS 51 - Texas Tech 21 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Texas minus 17½, and is now minus 16½. Even
the most casual of fans well remembers the incredible windup to last year's war between
these 2, as the 'Horns came all the way back from 29-13 deficit in the 3rd, taking the lead in
the final 1½ minutes, only to lose it on a 28-yd Harrell-to-Crabtree pass in the final second.
'Horns rank 2nd in the land, & have had this one in their sights since that wrencher. Have
McCoy, along with 7 other "O" starters, & seem to always play their best as host of this
series. Spread seems high, especially off Tech's rout of Rice, but we lay it.
RATING: TEXAS 89

KANSAS 45 - Duke 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 19, and is now minus 21. Jays were the talk
of the land for most of the '07 season, covering their 1st 10 games, & winding up at 12-1 SU,
as well as 11-1 ATS. But LY, despite the return of 15 starters, including the irrepressible
Reesing at QB, the magic just wasn't there, as its defense, which eventually finished 90th in
the nation, couldn't complement its productive offense. But things are harking back to '07,
thus far, as they're extremely balance, & have thus far, stymied foe attacks. Imps can't run,
so unable to shorten it. Note that KU is stellar 11-1 ATS as a HF.
RATING: KANSAS 88

NOTRE DAME 31 - Michigan State 27 - (3:30) -- Line opened at NotreDame minus 11, and is still minus 11.
A week ago, we begged off the obvious choice of the puppy in the NoDame/Michigan series.
We have made plenty of hay over the years, with that simple trend, but decided not to step
out, due to the plethora of questions surrounding the Wolves. Well, once again there was
money to be made with the dog, in that stunning upset (final 0:11). This series is also knee-
deep in tradition, namely the barnburner. Last week, the Spartans were caught peeking to
this contest, in their upset to CentralMichigan. But will be ready.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88

California 38 - MINNESOTA 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at California minus 13½, and is now minus 14. A
year ago, the Bears opened with a pair of wins & covers, the 2nd being a 66-3 wipeout of
WashingtonSt. They then were installed as a 2-TD chalk at Maryland in a 12:00 noon (East-
ern) start. It all seemed too easy, & it was, as they were completely dominated by the Terps,
with the eventual 35-27 final hardly reflective of the game itself. Well, they are again off to an
impressive start, & again travel east for a noon start. You can bet that they've learned their
lesson. Minny has a pair of 4th quarter comeback wins. Not here.
RATING: CALIFORNIA 88


NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BoiseSt, Bowling Green, OklaSt, BYU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!


TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAAF RELEASES

OKLAHOMA STATE
We know that Oklahoma State isn’t a happy bunch after losing to
heavy underdog Houston last week at Boone Pickens Stadium. We
also know that the Cougars are a dangerous team, something we
can’t say about this week’s visitor to Stillwater, the Rice Owls.
Indeed, the Owls have slipped from last year’s bowl season, blown
out while failing to cover their first two games vs. UAB and Texas
Tech while recording a poor “AFS” (Away From Spread) number of
-15.50, one of the worst 2-game marks in the nation. And we also
know the Cowboys can be quite a bully under HC Mike Gundy,
covering 12 of their last 14 as double-digit chalk, including 8 of their
last 9 in that role at home. Rice has also fallen to 2-5 vs. the line its
last 7 as a road dog after its opening defeats.

KENTUCKY
There’s been a not-so-subtle shift in the Bluegrass State “hate
series” between Louisville and Kentucky the past two years. After
watching the Cards mostly dominate action for much of the decade,
the Wildcats have bossed the last two meetings with wins and
covers, and will be looking for more of the same Saturday at
Commonwealth Stadium. Kentucky has also been trustworthy at
Lexington of late vs. non-SEC foes, covering 4 of its last 5
opportunities. Meanwhile, Louisville has mostly struggled vs. the line
since HC Steve Kragthorpe arrived in ‘07, covering only 8 of 22
chances on the board.

AIR FORCE
Series trends and recent performances present a very strong case
for Air Force when the hungry Falcons invade Albuquerque for a
Saturday Mountain West battle against New Mexico. It’s been all Air
Force in recent meetings, as the Falcs have covered five straight vs.
the Lobos. The Force is also a notable 16-9 vs. the line since HC
Troy Calhoun arrived in ‘07, and Calhoun has proven particularly
reliable as a favorite, covering in 9 of 11 chances. As for New
Mexico, the faltering Lobos have looked bad while losing and failing
to cover their first two, posting a woeful “AFS” (Away From Spread)
number of -18.50 in those lopsided defeats. And the New Mexico
pointspread lsoing streak is now at 4 games, reaching back into late
last season.

HAWAII
We’re picking our spots carefully with hometown UNLV, which, as
we expected provided good value last week vs. favorred Oregon
State. But we’re not about to trust the Rebels as a favrotie when they
host explosive Hawaii Saturday night at Sam Boyd Stadium. The
reason? Consider the Rebs’ subpar 2-6 chalk amrk in rare favorite
roles since HC Mike Sanford arrived in 2005. Indeed, the underdog
team is 16-7 vs. the line in UNLV home games in the Sanford era. In
this uncomforable chalk role, the Rebs are also a go-against play in
the Impotent Favorites system this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

CFB

KEY RELEASES

INDIANA by 10 over Akron
AUBURN by 17 over West Virginia
SMU by 18 over Washington State
BUFFALO by 7 over Ucf


SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

ARMY 28 - Ball State 15—Ball State had just 9 FDs and yielded 5 sacks,
while star RB Lewis had just 21 YR in New Hampshire loss due in large part to
inexperience in OL (just 1 returning starter, 5 RS frosh in 2-deep) and loss of
5th-yr. sr. TE Grant (DNP vs. NH due to ACL inj.; out for season). Army
defensive front has allowed just 1.8 ypc in first two games, while option attack
has generated 5.3 ypc. Card d.c. Graber’s new 4-3 defense still needs work,
and Black Knights’ clicking rush game tough to prepare for.
(DNP...SR: Army 1-0)

PURDUE 31 - Northern Illinois 26—Purdue has covered first two games
under new HC Hope behind soph RB Bolden’s 7.1 ypc despite QB Elliott’s 5
ints. and a “D” yielding 35 ppg. Bolden leads the country in rushing, and NIU’s
DL could be a soft target even though Huskie HC Kill says that unit could be
improved despite graduation losses. MAC is 13-5 vs. the number last 1+
seasons against the Big Ten, and NIU has been a solid road dog. Will Boilers
look ahead to high-profile game against Notre Dame next Saturday?
(FIRST MEETING)

MICHIGAN 45 - Eastern Michigan 16—Victory over ND and 2-0 start will
serve to jack up the spread on Michigan this week...but also boost the morale
of faster 2009 attack. QB Forcier and speedy Wolverine offense will do some
damage facing EMU defensive front that doesn’t look any better than last year’s
crew that gave up 5.4 ypc. However, Eagle QB Schmitt has visited the “Big
House” before and survived, doing more than enough to get the cover as a 29-
pt. dog in 11-point loss in 2007.
(07-MICHIGAN -29 33-22...SR: Michigan 8-0)

*PITTSBURGH 29 - Navy 27—True frosh Panther RB Lewis (375 total yards,
5 TDs in first two games) one of nation’s top newcomers. But we’ll bet against
maligned sr. QB Stull (3 first-half TDP at Buffalo) channeling former Panther
great Dan Marino for a second straight week. Navy (31-16 as dog since ‘99)
continues to be righteous pointspread performer under 2nd-year HC
Niumatalolo, who’s covered 8 of last 12.
(08-Pitt 42-NAVY 21...P.22-12 P.42/244 N.47/194 P.15/23/2/255 N.4/8/1/57 P.1 N.1)
(08-Pittsburgh -3 42-21 07-Navy +4 48-45 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 21-13-3)

*Northwestern 22 - SYRACUSE 21—Big 10 scouts caution not to read too
much into Northwestern’s close win vs. EMU last week, saying Wildcats
simply got complacent after jumping out to early 21-0 lead on lightly-
regarded Eagles. And NU’s offense is much further advanced than
restructured Syracuse attack. Still, re-energized Orange defense showing
considerable moxie under new HC Marrone.
(08-NORTH. 30-Syr. 10...N.25-11 N.42/269 S.30/122 N.23/35/1/215 S.14/28/1/103 N.1 S.0)
(08-NORTHWESTERN -12 30-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)

CLEMSON 28 - Boston College 15—New BC QBs Tuggle & Shinskie and
retooling Eagle defense stepping waaaaaaaay up in class after clobbering
outmanned Northeastern & Kent State in first two weeks. Lean to laying fair
price with host Clemson, which owns a mingy stop unit, plus the top big-play
threats on field in blazing seniors RB Spiller & WR Ford.
(08-Clem. 27-BOS. COL. 21...C.16-11 B.30/120 C.31/87 C.21/33/3/252 B.18/39/0/116 C.1 B.2)
(08-Clemson +3' 27-21 07-Tech +8' 20-17 06-TECH +2 34-33 (OT)...SR: EVEN 8-8-2)

PENN STATE 40 - Temple 6—Paterno and Penn State have disappointed
chalk bettors twice this season, but it’s hard to see how Temple has made up
enough ground to compete with Nittany Lions. Owls have been outscored 123-
3 last 3 in series, all of which were covered by Penn State laying hefty spreads.
Temple committed 5 turnovers in blowing a 10-point, 4th-Q lead at home
against Villanova, and if that’s a true indication of the Owls’ progress, this game
will be another Penn State rout.
(08-PENN ST. 45-Temple 3...P.27-10 P.45/303 T.28/16 P.18/31/1/243 T.17/32/3/122 P.1 T.0)
(08-PSU -28' 45-3 07-Psu -25' 31-0 06-PSU -36' 47-0...SR: Penn St. 34-3-1)

NORTH CAROLINA 19 - East Carolina 17—True, Tar Heels own most
dominant platoon in this matchup, as their smothering defense is stocked fore
and aft with athletic playmakers. With UNC QB Yates still developing good
rapport with his rebuilt WR corps, however, points should work with plucky
Pirates (15-5 last 20 as road dog) IF vet ECU QB Pinkney (just 42% so far in
2009) snaps out of early-season funk. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-EAST CAROLINA -5' 34-31...SR: North Carolina 8-2-1)

*WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 - Miami-Ohio 10—Can’t be enamored with laying
double digits with WMU side that’s 109th offensively in 0-2 start, but the next
point Miami scores will be its first of ‘09. It appears RedHawks haven’t
absorbed new HC Haywood’s pro-style offense, and are on a 4-13 spread run
since late in ‘07. Broncos return home after taking some lumps in Ann Arbor
and a disappointing loss at Indiana last week, and QB Hiller can get WMU back
on track in MAC opener.
(06-WMU -12’ 27-24...SR: Miami-Ohio 37-17-1)

*VANDERBILT 19 - Mississippi State 14—Since MSU‘s capable,
alternating QBs T. Lee & Relf making strides in HC Mullen’s spread attack,
prefer to take TD+ vs. Vandy squad still lacking much offensive punch—‘Dores
have generated 16 pts. or fewer in 9 of past 10 games vs. FBS squads. Bulldogs
slimmed-down & quicker sr. RB Dixon (92 YR, 4.5 ypc vs. Auburn) is the premier
ball-carrier on gridiron. And proud, athletic MSU defense bounces back after
allowing an aberrational 390 YR in 49-24 loss at Auburn (most pts. allowed
since 2004!).
(08-MISS. ST. 17-Vandy 14...M.16-7 M.50/166 V.26/45 M.12/22/0/81 V.8/20/2/62 M.0 V.0)
(08-MSU +2 17-14...SR: Mississippi State 11-7-2)

COLORADO 28 - Wyoming 17—Colorado mostly embarrassed its first two
starts, trailing Colorado State & Toledo by a combined 43-6 at the half.
However, Buffaloes get a chance to redeem themselves at home against a
Wyoming team still adjusting under former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave
Christensen. Cowboys making some progress, judging by stubborn
performance last week vs. visiting Texas, but that narrow cover “boosted”
Wyo’s pointspread mark to 5-20-1 its last 26.
(DNP...SR: Colorado 23-2-1)

IOWA 22 - Arizona 20—Lopsided victory at Iowa St. indicates that reports of
Iowa’s demise perhaps a bit premature. But if that romp past Cyclones inflates
price, edge shifts to underrated Arizona bunch that usually provides good value
as dog (14-8 last 22 in role). Experience edge at QB goes to Hawkeye sr.
Stanzi, but Pac-10 sources raving about speed (especially a very active LB
crew) on Cat stop unit, and new UA QB Scott proving a quick study in o.c. Sonny
Dykes’ spread. TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Arizona 6-5)

Indiana 26 - AKRON 16—Indiana’s move to the “Pistol” offense to try
to breath life into the Hoosier rush game is yielding positive results, as RB
McCray is coming off a 134-yard effort against WMU last week, by far the most
productive game in his career. Indiana QB Chappell has completed 70% of his
throws in engineering a 2-0 start for HC Bill Lynch. Akron is among the MAC
teams that’ve given the Big Ten a little trouble vs. the spread, but Zips have
dropped their last 16 against that league, all by double digits. TV—ESPNU
(07-INDIANA -13' 41-24...SR: Indiana 1-0)

KANSAS 42 - Duke 14—Blue Devils’ victory over Army last week a lot closer
than final score, as sr. CB Wright tallied two TDs on interception returns late in
4th Q at West Point. Meticulous HC Mangino’s Jayhawks (21-5 last 26 as
chalk!) almost always handle their business when they hold an advantage, and
KU enjoys definitive edges all over field in matchup against youthful Duke.
(FIRST MEETING)

SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Virginia 17—Embattled Virginia HC Groh’s switch to
spread attack an abject disaster so far. Cavs mustered just 268 yards in
opening double-digit home loss to William & Mary, then gained nearly half of
last week’s paltry 177-yard total against TCU on a couple of TD passes after
Frogs led 30-0 late in fourth quarter. Huge edge to Eagles’ effective triumvirate
of QB A. Davis, RB Fletcher & WR D. Brown. (FIRST MEETING)

Utah 29 - OREGON 27—Maybe it’s too early to hit the panic button, but UO’s
early struggles (offense inept at Boise, LeGarette Blount’s antics, defense
springing leaks vs. Purdue) indicate it’s not quite business as usual in Eugene
as adjustment phase to new HC Kelly continues. Utah still making its own
adjustments, but juco QB Cain getting more comfy at controls, and Utes have
long relished this profitable road dog role (18-5 last 23). Not sure Utah’s 16-
game win streak about to end just yet. TV-ESPN
(DNP...SR: EVEN 3-3)

Southern Cal 31 - WASHINGTON 17—Before nominating Matt Barkley for
the Hall of Fame, we thought it was more illuminating how SC’s veneer of
invincibility was sheared a bit in that narrow escape at Ohio State. And though
U-Dub (now shed of its 15-game losing streak) might not have Buckeye-like
manpower to slug away vs. Troy, new Husky HC Sarkisian (former SC o.c)
could know the Trojan offense better than Pete Carroll, and will make sure to
keep better watch on Joe McKnight than Jim Tressel did in late going at the
Horseshoe. A now-healthy Jake Locker should allow UW to sustain drives, and
note how Locker and Huskies put a big-time scare into SC in ’07. TV—ABC
(08-S. CAL 56-Wash. 0...S.25-15 S.46/297 W.30/71 S.16/20/0/188 W.14/33/3/113 S.0 W.0)
(08-USC -45 56-0 07-Usc -20' 27-24 06-USC -19 26-20...SR: Southern Cal 49-26-4)

*UCLA 24 - Kansas State 10—Inevitable pointspread reaction to last week’s
disparate results aside, still not sure we’re ready to dismiss KSU’s early
misfirings that might have Bill Snyder wondering why he came out of retirement.
Wildcat “O” still in post-Josh Freeman transition, as new pilot Coffman (barely
50% completions) learning on the job. UCLA will have to endure with LY’s error-
prone QB Craft for a spell while RS frosh Prince recovers from broken jaw, but
if playmaking Bruin “D” can flummox Tennessee, it can do the same vs. KSU.
(FIRST MEETING)

VIRGINIA TECH 20 - Nebraska 19—Sure, taking on swarming Hokie
defense at hostile Blacksburg a tad tougher assignment for new Husker QB Lee
than pair of Sun Belt foes he faced at Lincoln in first two games. But
rejuvenated Nebraska stop unit also bears little resemblance to the Marshall
platoon that Tech trampled for 444 YR last week. Fiery HC Pelini will have his
revenge-minded Huskers ready to wage 60-minute battle and fully test QB T.
Taylor’s development as a passer. TV—ABC
(08-Va. Tech 35-NEB. 30...V.21-14 V.55/206 N.25/55 N.17/26/1/278 V.9/15/0/171 V.0 N.1)
(08-Virginia Tech +7 35-30...SR: EVEN 1-1)

NOTRE DAME 31 - Michigan State 28—While HC Weis appears to have the
ND offense (35 ppg; 500 ypg) and QB Clausen (7 TDPs, 0 ints.) on track, the
Irish defense showed it has issues defending speed. Young MSU RBs Ray,
Caper and Baker are homerun threats, and soph QB Cousins (0 ints.) has a pair
of explosive targets in WRs Cunningham and White (caught 2 TDs each from
Cousins in first 2 games). Spartans have won and covered last 6 in South Bend.
Need a little more evidence that Irish have pulled out of 11-18 SU run over last
2+ seasons. REGIONAL TV—NBC
(08-MICH. ST. 23-N. Dame 7...N.18-16 M.43/203 N.22/16 N.24/41/2/242 M.12/26/0/143 M.1 N.1)
(08-MSU -9 23-7 07-Msu -10' 31-14 06-Und -3 40-37...SR: Notre Dame 44-27-1)

Ohio State 42 - Toledo 16—Kudos to Toledo for putting 85 points on the
board a against Purdue and Colorado, but can’t forget that Rockets allowed 90
in those two contests. OSU defense will be in an ugly mood after surrendering
late drive last week against USC, and Buckeye offense dropping waaaaay
down in class after being bottled up in 2nd half against the Trojans. Unusual
Cleveland location will produce a pro-Buckeye crowd, and HC Tressel not the
type to let his OSU bunch wallow in self pity. Rockets allowing 45 ppg and gave
up 535 yards vs. Purdue opener. (at Cleveland, OH)
(DNP...SR: Ohio State 1-0)

*AUBURN 33 - West Virginia 16—With Auburn QB Todd expertly
executing o.c. Malzhan’s diversified attack (1045 yds. so far), prefer revenge-
minded Tigers, eager to avenge 34-17 pasting at Morgantown LY. WV’s young
OL (3 sophs start) on heels vs. Tigers hard-charging front 7, while Mountie RB
Devine (217 YR LY) won’t look so divine this time. Auburn WR K. Burns (former
QB scored 4 TDs vs. Miss. State) thriving in wildcat formation, while the
dynamic RB duo of Tate and McCalebb (combined 271 YR vs Miss. State) has
wearing effect on defenses. Remember, WV lost at Colorado LY! TV—ESPN2
(08-W. VA. 34-Auburn 17...W.25-16 W.35/271 A.45/149 W.13/21/2/174 A.13/21/1/111 W.0 A.0)
(08-WEST VIRGINIA -3' 34-17...SR: West Virginia 1-0)

FLORIDA 49 - Tennessee 13—UT’s brazen HC Kiffin liked the free publicity
for his ill-advised statements in preseason (see Looking for an Angle), but those
words only add fuel (plenty of it) to the fire for overpowering Florida, which has
won last two meetings by combined 119-26 score. Vols still-unsteady sr. QB
Crompton (5 ints. TY) likely to self-destruct, especially without much ground
support (mere 2.7 ypc vs. Bruins). Consequently, Gator superstar Tebow (TDP
in 30 straight games) and his blazing playmakers enjoy numerous scoring
opportunities vs. overburdened Vol “D” that was seen finger-pointing in locker
room following UCLA loss. Meyer’s money-making squad (18-4 vs. spread last
22 on board) convincingly breaks school-record for consecutive wins (13).
REGIONAL TV—CBS
(08-Fla. 30-TENN. 6...16-16 F.39/147 T.31/96 T.18/28/1/162 F.8/15/0/96 F.0 T.2)
(08-Fla. -7' 30-6 07-FLA. -7 59-20 06-Fla. -3' 21-20...SR: EVEN 19-19)

Smu 42 - WASHINGTON STATE 24—Laying points on road with SMU
might seem risky. But unless oddsmakers are throwing in a date with Scarlett
Johansson, we’re not about to recommend woeful Wazzu bunch that was blown
out by post-June Jones Hawaii last week. Now, Cougs face Jones’ “real” SMU
Red Gun and hot QB Bo Levi Mitchell (353 YP in UAB upset), who should have
field day vs. WSU “D” (39 ppg) that’s picked up where it left off LY when allowing
most points in college history. (FIRST MEETING)

IDAHO 29 - San Diego State 26—Early efforts confirm reports from WAC
scouts that Idaho not quite as helpless as it’s been the past two seasons. And
since Vandals making a conscientious attempt to establish an infantry diversion
to slow pace of game and keep undersized “D” off field, Kibbie Dome crew has
a chance to do some business vs. undersized SDSU stop unit that still could be
susceptible to smashmouth tactics. Not sure new-look Aztecs ready to carry
numbers on road.
(08-SDSU 45-Idaho 17...S.23-20 I.40/182 S.35/158 S.26/40/1/445 I.16/34/3/169 S.1 I.1)
(08-SAN DIEGO ST. -11 45-17...SR: San Diego St. 2-1)

Nevada 34 - COLORADO STATE 26—Some sharp WAC insiders have had
that “I told you so” look since Nevada proved once again that it wasn’t ready to
take next step up in opener at Notre Dame. But those same sources insist QB
Kaepernick and Chris Ault’s Pistol can function optimally against CSU-level
competition. And not sure about early “buy” signal on Rams, whose win over
Colorado looks a bit less impressive, especially after CSU’s life-and-death
struggle vs. Big Sky Weber State. (06-NEVADA -2' 28-10...SR: Colorado St. 8-1)

*Bowling Green 33 - MARSHALL 24—Bankroll-burning Herd an icy 35% vs.
the spread since early 2004, while Falcons have soared to 11 straight covers as
a visitor. ‘Nuff said. (DNP...SR: Bowling Green 20-7)

California 35 - MINNESOTA 16—After having its hands full vs. a couple of
foes (Syracuse & Air Force) a few notches below Cal, not sure Minnesota ready
to handle a step up in class. Voracious, vet Bear “D” (and its heat-seeking
2ndary) has already wrecked Ralph Friedgen’s well-conceived Maryland attack
and looks a good match to similarly slow QB Weber and Gopher spread. And
new-found confidence of QB Riley suddenly creating lots of possibilities for
potent Cal “O” (56 ppg!). TV—ESPN2 (DNP...SR: California 3-2)

*Buffalo 27 UCF 20—Since UCF’s moribund offense (nation’s worst
230 ypg LY) still stagnant so far (only 194 yds. vs. Southern Miss), take any
available points with disciplined UB, coming off unusually-sloppy 54-27 loss vs.
Pitt (4 TOs led to 27 Panther pts.; only 14 giveaways previous 15 games!). Bulls
own undisputed edge at QB with quick-learning, mobile QB Maynard (heavily-
recruited Georgia product had 400 YP vs. Pitt), who has solid rapport with
terrific WR duo of Roosevelt & Hamlin (combined 18 catches vs. Pitt).
Defending MAC champ 10-1 vs. spread last 11 away.
(DNP...SR: UCF 5-1)

*OKLAHOMA STATE 52 - Rice 13—Rice defense, such as it is, has given up
1076 yards and 99 points in its first two games and should prove to be easy
“pickens” for deep OSU attack, especially for speedy 6-2 A-A WR Dez Bryant
(19 TDs LY). After losing key TD-makers such as QB Chase Clement, WR
Jarrett Dillard, and TE/FB James Casey, Owls unlikely to stay within reach,
especially with Birds playing third straight week on road.
(DNP...SR: Oklahoma State 2-0-1)

OKLAHOMA 35 - Tulsa 25—Check status of Heisman-winning Oklahoma
QB Bradford. If he’s still sidelined with shoulder injury as expected, new Tulsa
triggerman Kinne (Texas transfer; 4 TDP last week) probably has enough
weapons to trade points for a while with Sooners’ still-learning RS frosh QB L.
Jones. (07-Okl. -23' 62-21...SR: Okl. 15-7-1)

*BAYLOR 32 - Connecticut 16—No doubt that Husky defense a resolute
bunch. But UConn offense undergoing major transition to no-huddle, spread
attack of new coordinator Moorhead. Prefer to lay points with bright Baylor HC
Briles, who has scintillating soph QB Griffin, a veteran defense, an extra week
of prep, and 9 covers in his last 11 games.
(08-CONN. 31-Baylor 28...B.24-21 C.46/225 B.43/169 B.14/25/0/208 C.13/23/2/125 C.0 B.0)
(08-CONNECTICUT -12' 31-28...SR: Connecticut 1-0)

*TEXAS A&M 33 - Utah State 13—Everything worked right for HC Mike
Sherman & Aggies in their opener vs. New Mexico, as they racked up 606 total
yards, blue-chip frosh RB Christine Michael gained 93 YR off the bench, QB
Jerrod Johnson tossed for 349 yards, and the reorganized-for-speed defense
had five sacks. But Utah State had 221 YR in its opener at Utah and is now on
a 14-6-1 spread run (5-4-1 getting 20 or more). Both teams were off last week.
(FIRST MEETING)

KENTUCKY 30 - Louisville 13—Now that UK looks strong on both sides of
ball TY, Wildcats convincingly capture 3rd straight Governor’s Cup vs. sliding
L’Ville (only 11-13 L2Ys) on 5-game spread losing streak. UK’s blossoming QB
Hartline and his burgeoning array of receivers (9 different ones in opener)
should exploit rebuilt Card 2ndary (3 new starters) untested in opener vs.
Indiana State. And doubt L’Ville’s unproven QB Burke (2 ints. vs. Sycamores)
keeps pace vs. stingy UK defense, featuring menacing, lock-down CB Lindley.
CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-Ky. 27-LVL. 2...L.16-13 K.33/63 L.29/53 L.20/43/3/152 K.16/31/0/147 K.1 L.2)
(08-Ky. +3' 27-2 07-KY. +5 40-34 06-LVL -22' 59-27...SR: Kentucky 12-9)

*KENT STATE 23 - Iowa State 21—Kent rush attack has been oddly lacking
in first two games TY, but Flash RB Jarvis rushed for 252 yds. in last 2 years
against Iowa State. Jarvis and vet Kent OL should get ground game in gear
against ISU defense that’s allowed 5.5 ypc. The Cyclones made Iowa true frosh
RB Wegher and N. Dakota St.’s Paschall look like Heisman hopefuls, and
Jarvis should be able to find creases in the ISU front 7.
(08-IOWA ST. 48-Kent St. 28...K.20-14 K.43/243 I.45/160 I.15/21/0/214 K.11/24/0/167 I.1 K.4)
(08-ISU -7' 48-28 07-Ksu +3' 23-14...SR: Iowa State 5-1)

*BYU 35 - Florida State 23—Cougs’ quick start causing spread to rise,
especially after Florida State almost suffered the indignity of home loss to
Jacksonville State last week (Seminoles trailed Gamecocks with less than a
minute remaining before salvaging 19-9 victory!). Still, might be worth laying
extra point or two to take BYU, which owns the better defense and the more
accomplished QB in sr. Hall (65 TDP last 2+ seasons).
(DNP...SR: Florida State 2-0)

*ARKANSAS 30 - Georgia 26—With UGA recouping from draining 41-37 win
vs. S. Carolina, good spot for resurgent and rested Arkansas squad that’s had
essentially 3 weeks to prepare for crucial SEC opener. Hogs strong-armed 6-
6 transfer QB Mallet, versatile, shifty RB M. Smith and mates (hammering 6-3,
220 true frosh RB Wingo, Jr. is a force) should burn Dawg defense (yielded 427
yds. vs ‘Cocks). UGA ground game containable (only 202 YR 1st two games),
so expect QB Cox to feel heat from more forceful Hog front 7, featuring blitz-
happy DT Sheppard. TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: Georgia 8-3)

*Air Force 34 - NEW MEXICO 10—Is there any truth to the rumor that New
Mexico backers are soliciting Glenn Beck to get the ball rolling on an “Impeach
Mike Locksley” campaign? Van Jones-like evidence mounting against new
Lobo regime, with the spread offense Locksley imported from his days as o.c.
at Illinois yet to produce a TD, and UNM backers crying for Rocky Long to return
to save newly-configured 4-3 “D” that’s allowing 43 ppg. Well-schooled AFA
can ruthlessly exploit Lobo shortcomings.
(08-A. FORCE 23-N. Mex. 10...A.17-14 A.69/227 N.47/212 N.9/18/1/91 A.1/3/1/1 A.2 N.3)
(08-AFA -5' 23-10 07-UNM -6 34-31 06-AFA -13' 24-7...SR: Air Force 15-10)

*Utep 31 - NEW MEXICO STATE 13—UTEP confidence shaken after
whiffing in Dave Kingman-like fashion during opening homestand vs. Buffalo
and Kansas. But if Miners looking to take out frustrations, they couldn’t find a
better foe than border rival NMSU, whose early attempts at HC Walker’s new
“smashmouth” style have resulted in a 21-6 loss vs. Idaho (?) & narrow escape
vs. Prairie View (?). Time for Mike Price to consider retiring if his established QB
Vittatoe can’t extend margin.
(08-Nms 34-UTEP 33...N.22-21 U.48/277 N.25/37 N.29/39/2/329 U.11/26/0/95 N.2 U.3)
(08-Nms +7 34-33 07-NMS -5 29-24 06-UTEP -16' 44-38...SR: UTEP 49-35-2)

*TEXAS 35 - Texas Tech 14—Everyone in Austin has been waiting for this
payback since UT’s last-second loss LY in Lubbock cost Longhorns a shot in
LY’s BCS title game. Colt McCoy is Colt McCoy, and the Texas defense
appears improved. New TT jr. QB Tyler Potts showed some “happy feet” and
tossed 3 ints. in opener vs. North Dakota, but he was on the beam for 456 YP,
no sacks, and no ints. last week vs. Rice. Side with UT’s deep defensive
backfield and special effort. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-TEX. TECH 39-Texas 33...T.31-18 T.28/105 U.28/80 T.36/53/0/474 U.20/34/1/294 T.1 U.1)
(08-TECH +3' 39-33 07-TEXAS -6' 59-43 06-Texas -10' 35-31...SR: Texas 43-15)

*UNLV 28 - Hawaii 27—Dicey psychological spot for UNLV, which not only
emptied its chambers in gut-wrenching last-second loss vs. Oregon State, but
also saw QB Clayton go down with knee injury. Rebs don’t lose much when
going to southpaw backup Clausen (who led late rally vs. Beavers), but chalk role
not as historically profitable for Mike Sanford’s UNLV. And there’s apparently some
octane left in Hawaii Red Gun with sr. QB Alexander (453 YP vs. WSU) firing away.
(07-Haw. -17 49-14 06-HAW. -12' 42-13...SR: Haw. 12-6)

*STANFORD 26 - San Jose State 17—Stepping up to heavyweight class vs.
the likes of USC a bit much for middleweight San Jose, but competitive effort vs.
Utah indicates Spartans resourceful enough to punch above their weight vs.
light-heavies such as Stanford. Cardinal “O” still a work in progress with RS
frosh Luck making only his third start, while SJSU doesn’t have to be reminded
how Jim Harbaugh jammed in a last-second TD to pad score in LY’s 23-10 final.
(08-STAN. 23-Sjsu 10...St.17-16 St.36/204 Sj.35/54 Sj.23/26/0/165 St.13/28/1/159 St.1 Sj.2)
(08-STAN. -8 23-10 07-STAN. -7 37-0 06-SJS +10 35-34...SR: Stanford 48-14-1)

Cincinnati 30 - OREGON STATE 24—Payback time for OSU, which not only
lost by 31 at Cincy in ’07, but also will be reminded by Corvallis oldtimers that
long-ago Beaver hoopsters absorbed an 80-46 beating vs. Bearcats in 1963
Final Four. Still, not too interested in bucking red-hot Cincy bunch that has
started the campaign in midseason form. Savvy Bearcat QB Pike can solve
rebuilt OSU “D,” while absence of pugnacious sr. QB Moevao (shoulder) robbing
Mike Riley’s “O” of needed versatility.
(07-CINCINNATI +3' 34-3...SR: Cincinnati 1-0)

ADDED GAMES

*RUTGERS 34 - Florida Intl. 13—Lean to Rutgers, based mostly on its 10
covers in last 13 games as double-digit chalk. Enthusiasm for favored Scarlet
Knights tempered by presence of talented but green true frosh QB Savage at
trigger of their attack, however. (FIRST MEETING)

ALABAMA 42 - North Texas 7—Bama mentor Saban expressed
unhappiness with his squad’s initial lack of energy and enthusiasm in ho-hum
40-14 win vs. FIU. Hence, envision a full 60-minute effort vs. improved North
Texas, which might have trouble getting off the mat following 31-30 triple-OT
loss vs. Ohio. Tide’s poised QB McElroy jacked-up to face Mean Green mentor
Todd Dodge, who was his high school coach in Texas. Check status of NTU QB
Riley Dodge (coach’s son), who suffered shoulder injury vs. Bobcats.
(DNP...SR: Alabama 2-0)

MARYLAND 27 - Middle Tennessee St. 26—Absolutely zero interest in
laying points with Maryland (2-13 as favorite since 2005!), which needed OT to
get past CAA James Madison at home last week after getting obliterated in
opener at Cal.
(08-MTS 24-Md. 14...Mt.21-15 Md.25/146 Mt.41/118 Mt.29/41/0/284 Md.14/29/3/211 Mt.1 Md.0)
(08-MTS +12' 24-14 06-MARY. -22' 24-10...SR: Maryland 2-1)

*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Florida Atlantic 13—This intersectional for USC is
sandwiched between Georgia and Ole Miss (next Thursday), but will still “lay it”
in game pitting Florida state coaching legends. Spurrier opened up attack in 41-
37 loss in Athens, and look for his maturing QB Garcia (313 YP vs. Dawgs) to
bedazzle vulnerable, rebuilt FAU defense (8 new starters), shredded in 49-3
slaughter at Nebraska in opener. Owls a hootless 1-11 vs. spread last 12 as a
non-conference visitor. (06-SOUTH CAROLINA -29 45-6...SR: South Carolina 1-0)

Uab 26 - TROY 24—Sr. QB Webb did throw 4 ints. in UAB’s 35-33 home loss
to SMU last week, but he also nearly led Blazers all the way back from 28-7 first-
half deficit. Webb (738 total yards, 4 TDP, 3 TDR in first 2 games) likely to find
plenty of holes in depleted Trojan secondary, so small upset no surprise.
(06-UAB -6 21-3...SR: EVEN 3-3)

*LSU 41 - La.-Lafayette 10—Talent mismatch. But note that LSU is 0-8 last
8 as a DD favorite, and remember that promising QB Jordan Jeffrerson has only
four career starts. Also note that Lafayette is 6-3 its last 9 as a DD road dog and
that HC Rickey Bustle appears to be tightening the Ragin’ Cajun defense (at
least in relative terms). Must also note, however, rebuilding Lafayette offense
had only 287 yards in 17-15 last-minute upset of K-State last week. CABLE
TV—ESPNU (06-LSU -30' 45-3...SR: LSU 20-0)

*ARIZONA STATE 43 - La.-Monroe 17—”Preseason” continues for ASU,
which has borrowed a page from Bill Snyder by opening vs. Idaho State &
Monroe (with a “bye” in between). Since Warhawk “D” lacks playmakers (like
most Sun Belt stop units) and new-look ULM no-huddle unlikely to trade points,
measured vote for Sun Devils to extend margin as Dennis Erickson gradually
expands playbook for new but sr. starting QB Sullivan before real action
commences next week at Georgia.
(FIRST MEETING)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE LOGICAL APPROACH BY ANDY ISKOE

Andy Won his NCAA POW w/ Ohio State last week and went 1-2 on his regular selections

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: TROY - 6 ½ over Alabama Birmingham - This season began with great expectations for Troy but an upset loss at Bowling Green and a thrashing at Florida have the Trojans at 0-2 with their Sun Belt Conference opener at Arkansas State on deck next week. UAB had a solid win over Rice to open the season and then failed last week as a double digit favorite against SMU, needing a late rally to make the final score respectable in a 35-33 loss. The Blazers hit the road for the first time while Troy plays their first home game. UAB has won 3 of 4 in the series but the teams last met in 2006. Troy's program has improved in the intervening seasons while UAB's has regressed. This is an important game for the instate recruiting of Alabama and Auburn leftovers. The circumstances and motivation favor the hosts and Troy is clearly the more talented team, taking on their weakest opponent to date. Troy wins 34-17.


Other Featured College Selections

Bowling Green - 3 over MARSHALL - Bowling Green opened with an upset win over Troy and followed that with an impressive effort at Missouri, leading most of the way before falling to the more talented Tigers 27-20. Marshall struggled to defeat FBS Southern Illinois 31-28 before being blown out at Virginia Tech last week, allowing over 600 to what had been an inept offense a weak earlier against Alabama. Sure, the difference in class between Marshall and Alabama is clear but such a poor effort validates the continued decline in the Marshall program since the days of Moss, Leftwich and Pennington. Bowling Green's program has been on the rise in the MAC. They have fared well on the non-conference road, covering 6 of 7 since 2007 including straight up wins at Wyoming, Pitt and Minnesota. Marshall is clearly in the class of teams BG can handle and they are priced at the same - 3 they were last season when they went to Wyoming and thrashed the Cowboys 45-16, validating their mettle as a small road favorite. They should do so again. Bowling Green wins 31-20.


ARKANSAS Pick 'em over Georgia - Arky coach Bobby Petrino was an utter NFL failure in his part season as Atlanta head coach but the guy can coach at the collegiate level. In 4 seasons his Louisville teams were 41-9 and since he left the Cards have been a dismal 11-13. Though just 5-7 in his first season in Fayetteville the Hogs ended Tulsa's perfect season and ended their own season with an upset of LSU. Things are looking up for the Razorbacks who return 17 starters and will have a high powered offense. They are rested after an opening 48-10 rout of Missouri State (591-205 yardage edge). Georgia has faced far better competition in losing at Oklahoma State and then barely surviving South Carolina. But the Bulldogs showed vulnerability on both sides of the football in those two games. Georgia has traditionally been the stronger program and had beaten Arkansas 7 of 8 times since 1990. But they've always been favored by more than a FG and by more than a TD 7 times. The linesmaker recognized how much the gap has closed and a highly motivated and well prepared team has pointed to this game, even with Alabama up next week. Arkansas wins 27-21.

MARYLAND - 6 ½ over Middle Tennessee - These teams meet for the third time in four seasons and Maryland is seeking revenge for a 24-14 road loss last season as 13 point favorites. The Terps were routed at Cal in their opener and then needed to rally last week against FCS James Madison to win 38-35 in OT. MTSU rebounded from an opening loss at Clemson to defeat Memphis at home last week. They do have their Sun Belt opener next week while Maryland hosts a non-conference foe, Rutgers. Maryland is the more talented team and should have the motivation to play well after last week's scare and last season's upset loss at MTSU. They will take this game seriously. Coach Friedgen has returned Maryland to respectability and the Terps have been to 3 straight Bowls and to 6 in his 8 seasons. Scheduling dynamics also favor the host and the price is more than reasonable and by far the smallest impost they must overcome in their four meetings this decade. MTSU has struggled when stepping up in class on the road. Maryland wins 31-17.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS CONSULTANTS Newsletter Plays

3 Utah covers over Oregon 34-35
3 California over Minnesota 44-20
2 Arizona over Iowa 34-21
2 Clemson over Boston College 38-21
2 Kentucky over Louisville 34-20
2 Texas over Texas Tech 48-31

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POWER SWEEP by Phil Steele

PS won POW w/ UNLV last week and went 2-3 on others with a net loss of 0.8 units on star basis

NCAA Star Selections:

4* UNLV over Hawaii - UH leads the series 12-6 SU and is 4-2-1 ATS vs LV, incl a current 3-1 run. UH has an edge on off (#48-71) but LV has the edge on def (#73-111) and ST (#72-118). UH finds itself in a similar situation here as in its last trip to Vegas (‘07) as the Warriors are again in the 2nd of B2B AG’s and stayed on the Mainland throughout the week. The Run-&-Shoot is back in gear at UH as QB Alexander is avg 379 ypg (69%) with a 6-1 ratio and also leads the team with 87 yds rush (4.6) and WR Salas has 14 rec (26.8!) and 2 TD and already has 375 yds in 2 gms (188 ypg). UH is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the 2nd of B2B AG’s S/’05 and the Warriors are on a current 8-3 ATS run overall. LV has its MWC opener at WY on deck while UH has a bye. The Rebs are off a heart-breaking loss to Oreg St, losing on a 33 yd FG with :07 left. QB Clayton slightly injured his knee and left in the 4Q and UNLV rallied for 2 TD’s to go ahead 21-20 (4:16) behind bkup Clausen. Clayton is avg 192 ypg (72%) with a 2-1 ratio and his top target has been Wolfe with 14 rec (11.3). Clausen is experienced though, leading LV to a 2-1 record to end ‘08, so if Clayton is out (check status) the off will not miss a beat. This is LV’s 4th time S/’04 hosting 3 consec HG’s and the Rebs are 3-0 SU/ATS in that 3rd gm. With LW’s results there’s is added value which makes for a great Sept ember 5H. FORECAST: UNLV 41 Hawaii 23

3* TEXAS A&M over Utah St - Both schools are off a bye. A&M won a 4H on these pages 2W ago in dominant fashion beating up on NM 41-6 (-14’). Big difference from LY as A&M looked near perfect in Sherman’s West Coast system (606 yds) and smothering def (all’d just 231 yds). QB Johnson threw for 349 yds (76%) with a 2-0 ratio. Utah St hasn’t played in 16 days but looked good vs rival Utah (covered as 21 pt AD, trailed just 14-10 after 1Q). A&M has 16 ret sts and figures to use non-conf to gain confidence in the 2nd yr under Sherman. A&M is 12-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in non-conf HG’s winning by an avg of 29 ppg but will not take this game lightly after losing to Ark St and barely getting past Army at home in ‘08. Utah St is also a vet squad (16 ret sts) but like A&M LY are dealing with new schemes from a 1st yr HC. Utah St is 5-14 ATS as a dog vs BCS tms and has dropped 7 straight road gms (10-5 ATS as an AD). A&M wore down NM 2W ago and should do the same here in the heat and humidity of TX (avg temp high 80’s, low 70’s in Logan). A hungry team that needs big wins would make a great September GOM. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 48 Utah St 20

3* Air Force over NEW MEXICO - The Lobos are not off to a good start in the Mike Locksley era losing both games by 30+ pts. We have gone against the Lobos twice this season using a 4H Key Selection on Texas A&M in the first week and a 2H Key Selection on Tulsa LW winning both easily as the Lobos are struggling offensively and defensively with new schemes. Meanwhile, AF is coming off a tough loss to Minny LW blowing a 7 pt lead in the second half and usually play well on the road early in the season going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the MWC road opener. AF has also won 4 of 5 vs NM. LY NM forced 3 early TO’s and led 10-0 about to go up 17-0 when they fumbled and AF returned it 96 yds for a TD. AF scored the final 23 pts. The Lobos usually hold AF well below their season avg rushing but that was under coach Rocky Long and he is now gone. LY under Long, the defense held AF to a season low 227 rush yds with just 3 pass att. The new DC Dickey hasn’t seen many option attacks in his career and may struggle here. The visitor is 8-4 ATS and AF has covered 5 straight. Troy Calhoun is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as an away fav. Air Force should continue the Lobos woes. FORECAST: Air Force 37 NEW MEXICO 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* FLORIDA over Tennessee - The Vols have avg’d just 41 rush ypg vs UF the last 3 years (-11, 37, 96). The team who has rushed for more yds has won 17 of the last 19. The Gators are 11-3-1 ATS S/’94 in their first SEC game. UF had a 3-0 TO edge and got a 78 yd PR TD from James to win 30-6 (-7’) LY and the FD’s were even at 16 and UT had a 258-243 yd edge. The Gators are the best team in the country and this is their only game in the month of Sept that matters especially after UT’s new coach Kiffin made some disparaging comments about Meyer in the offssn. UF (-7’) won their last HG vs UT by 39 and that UT team made it to the SEC Title game. UF has our #1 off and #1 def and #2 spec tms and faces UT’s #45 off, #10 def and #65 spec tms. UF’s Meyer can name the score here as UF is fresh off of 2 blowout wins (outscored Char So and Troy 118-9 and outgained them by an avg of 644-231) in which the subs did most of the work while UT lost a hard-fought battle with UCLA 19-15 last week and has to travel. UT had a 208-186 yd edge but a 4-1 TO deficit LW. QB Crompton has struggled under pressure and is avg 163 ypg (63%) with a 5-5 ratio (3 int and a fmbl lost LW) while Tebow is avg 213 ypg (64%) with a 5-0 ratio. All UF has done is cover 15 of 16 regular season games. Sounds like a September 5H, doesn’t it? FORECAST: FLORIDA 38 Tennessee 3

2* KENT ST over Iowa St - Kent St knows they can win this as they beat Iowa St 23-14 on the road in ‘07 and LY had a 480-374 yd edge but lost in a gm an upset coach Martin felt he had the stronger tm (4 fmbl and 2 blk punts vs them). ISU is just the 5th current BCS school to visit Dix Stadium S/’76. ISU is making their first road trip and are off of playing their rival Iowa (outgained by 123 yds w/6 TO’s). QB Arnaud is avg 153 ypg (52%) with a 2-4 ratio (all 4 int LW) and was pulled for rFr Tiller (PS#54). They have a new HC and lost 22 lett while Kent has just 13 lett lost. ISU has dropped 17 straight AG’s and are 0-4 ATS as a rare AF. This will be their 5th MAC opp over the L4Y and they have been outgained in 3 matchups. KSU has outgained and outFD’d ISU in 2 of those (+47 ypg). KSU was blasted by BC LW (outgained 349-179) and have its MAC opener on deck. QB Morgan is avg 120 ypg (59%) with a 0-3 ratio as KSU played 3 QB’s vs BC. RB Jarvis has 158 yds (4.3). With the Cyclones road struggles and the Flashes past success vs them, KSU will be very confident vs this BCS opponent. FORECAST: KENT ST 30 Iowa St 24

2* OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures. FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 45 Tulsa 17

Underdog POW UDPOW Won last week with San Jose State

Uab (+7') TROY
Troy will be glad to have its first home game after two tough road trips. The Trojans are 18-0 in home openers under HC Blakeney. These 2 are locked at 3 games apiece, UAB defeated Troy 21-3 (Troy just 126 yds 1st 3Q’s) in 2006 and won at Troy 27-7 in ‘05. Troy is off Florida with their SBC opener on deck vs a prime contender. This is UAB’s first road game but they have vet QB Webb and 18 ret sts but they are just 2-19 SU on the road (13-14 ATS). UAB has the edge on off (#44-79) but Troy has large edges on defense (#81 vs #110) and ST’s (#12 vs #120). Troy did win all of their HG’s by DD in ‘08 with the avg home win of 40-9. Troy has been outscored 80-6 the last 6 quarters. LW in a 35-33 loss to SMU, UAB had 5 turnovers (4 int, 1 fmbl), incl an int in the EZ, and had a PAT blk'd, forcing them to go for 2 late in the game. UAB finished with a 448-437 yd edge. They are now back in their preferred role as an underdog and they have the talent to get this outright win. An upset here would make a nice September Game of the Month!!!FORECAST: Uab 34 TROY 33

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (9/9)

Game 105-106: Ball State at Army
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 66.547; Army 78.346
Dunkel Line: Army by 12; 44
Vegas Line: Army by 7 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (-7 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: Northern Illinois at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 76.540; Purdue 95.269
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 18 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Purdue by 13; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-13); Over

Game 109-110: Eastern Michigan at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 66.751; Michigan 94.676
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 28; 51
Vegas Line: Michigan by 24; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-24); Under

Game 111-112: Navy at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 91.804; Pittsburgh 96.665
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 52
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+8); Under

Game 113-114: Northwestern at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 87.074; Syracuse 83.911
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 3; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 3 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+3 1/2); Under

Game 115-116: Boston College at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 93.894; Clemson 95.395
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1 1/2; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+7); Over

Game 117-118: Temple at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 75.981; Penn State 110.447
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 34 1/2; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 29; 48
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-29); Over

Game 119-120: East Carolina at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 88.234; North Carolina 92.308
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 4; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+7 1/2); Under

Game 121-122: Miami (OH) at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 62.496; Western Michigan 82.018
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 19 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 16 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-16 1/2); Over

Game 123-124: Mississippi State at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 80.126; Vanderbilt 91.818
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 11 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 9; 45
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-9); Under

Game 125-126: Wyoming at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 76.161; Colorado 78.403
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 7; 53
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+7); Under

Game 127-128: Arizona at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 96.154; Iowa 99.756
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 3 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Iowa by 5; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+5); Under

Game 129-130: Indiana at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 76.313; Akron 79.365
Dunkel Line: Akron by 3; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 4 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2); Under

Game 131-132: Duke at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 77.739; Kansas 101.276
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 23 1/2; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 22; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-22); Over

Game 133-134: Virginia at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 76.532; Southern Mississippi 93.952
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 17 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 16; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-16); Under

Game 135-136: Utah at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 101.144; Oregon 102.269
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 1; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5; 53
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+5); Over

Game 137-138: USC at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: USC 108.521; Washington 90.115
Dunkel Line: USC by 18 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: USC by 20; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+20); Over

Game 139-140: Kansas State at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 81.740; UCLA 94.438
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 12 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: UCLA by 12; 43
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-12); Under

Game 141-142: Nebraska at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 97.004; Virginia Tech 101.604
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+5); Over

Game 143-144: Michigan State at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 88.235; Notre Dame 97.949
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 9 1/2; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 10; 55
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+10); Under

Game 145-146: Ohio State at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 106.107; Toledo 81.489
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 24 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 20 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-20 1/2); Under

Game 147-148: West Virginia at Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 93.790; Auburn 94.686
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Auburn by 7; 53
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+7); Under

Game 149-150: Tennessee at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 88.628; Florida 121.190
Dunkel Line: Florida by 32 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Florida by 29 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-29 1/2); Over

Game 151-152: SMU at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 71.037; Washington State 68.546
Dunkel Line: SMU by 2 1/2; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 6; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+6); Under

Game 153-154: San Diego State at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 68.025; Idaho 68.161
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+3 1/2); Under

Game 155-156: Nevada at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 86.573; Colorado State 83.010
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3; 57
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-3); Under

Game 157-158: Bowling Green at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 82.131; Marshall 80.064
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2; 56
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+3); Over

Game 159-160: California at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: California 108.391; Minnesota 89.004
Dunkel Line: California by 19 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: California by 13 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: California (-13 1/2); Under

Game 161-162: Buffalo at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 78.689; Central Florida 79.252
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 1; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 4 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4 1/2); Under

Game 163-164: Rice at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 70.635; Oklahoma State 107.727
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 37; 70
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 32 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-32 1/2); Over

Game 165-166: Tulsa at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 97.657; Oklahoma 115.143
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 17 1/2; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 17; 58
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-17); Under

Game 167-168: Connecticut at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 88.399; Baylor 97.143
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 8 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Baylor by 10 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+10 1/2); Over

Game 169-170: Utah State at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 72.503; Texas A&M 91.007
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 18 1/2; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 19 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+19 1/2); Under

Game 171-172: Louisville at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 75.631; Kentucky 94.111
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 18 1/2; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 13 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-13 1/2); Under

Game 173-174: Iowa State at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 78.584; Kent State 76.196
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 2 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+3); Under

Game 175-176: Florida State at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 90.032; BYU 110.976
Dunkel Line: BYU by 21; 51
Vegas Line: BYU by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-7); Under

Game 177-178: Georgia at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 97.391; Arkansas 93.537
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 1 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+1 1/2); Over

Game 179-180: Air Force at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 93.079; New Mexico 74.464
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 18 1/2; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Air Force by 17; 46
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-17); Over

Game 181-182: UTEP at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 80.721; New Mexico State 59.400
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 21 1/2; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 13 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-13 1/2); Over

Game 183-184: Texas Tech at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 100.832; Texas 114.838
Dunkel Line: Texas by 14; 64
Vegas Line: Texas by 18; 67
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+18); Under

Game 185-186: Hawaii at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 80.069; UNLV 81.837
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 2; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 7 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+7 1/2); Under

Game 187-188: San Jose State at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 76.956; Stanford 95.442
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 18 1/2; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 17; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-17); Under

Game 189-190: Cincinnati at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 100.566; Oregon State 97.503
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 60 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati; Over

Game 191-192: Florida International at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 74.343; Rutgers 90.410
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 16; 53
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 14; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-14); Under

Game 193-194: North Texas at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 69.688; Alabama 107.525
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 38; 50
Vegas Line: Alabama by 38 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+38 1/2); Under

Game 195-196: Middle Tennessee State at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 78.695; Maryland 87.999
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Maryland by 6; 50
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6); Under

Game 197-198: Florida Atlantic at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 70.424; South Carolina 94.781
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 24 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 20 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-20 1/2); Over

Game 199-200: UAB at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 77.013; Troy 79.627
Dunkel Line: Troy by 2 1/2; 63 1/2
Vegas Line: Troy by 6 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+6 1/2); Over

Game 201-202: UL Lafayette at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 74.759; LSU 102.545
Dunkel Line: LSU by 28; 48
Vegas Line: LSU by 27; 51
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-27); Under

Game 203-204: UL Monroe at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 71.231; Arizona State 93.631
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 22 1/2; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 19 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-19 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Indian Cowboy

6 Unit Play. #150. Florida Gators -29.5 over the Tennessee Volunteers (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). I love me some Gator. And, Tennessee is Gator bait this weekend. I am sick and tired of hearing Lane Kiffin talk. He has talked so much trash. The comments stating that they will be singing Rocky Top once they beat Florida is playing over and over again in the Florida locker room I’m sure. Urban will get his boys more than ready to play for this SEC clash. What is humorous is why would Kiffin run his mouth against the defending national champs and as he admittedly stated the greatest college football quarterback and team of all time? If Tennessee struggled against the UCLA defense of the Pac-10, would they not struggle like hell against the Florida Gators? If the Vols had struggling scoring points and matching the line strength of the Bruins, would they not struggle against the speed and power of the line against the Gators? If the Gators defeated this team by 24 points on the road, can they not certainly defeat this team by 30 points at home - in a nationally televised game where the Gators will be amped to shut up Kiffin and company up for good? Also, Urban knows the spread. You better believe he does. I expect Florida to treat the Vols no differently than Troy. Expect the Gators to score, keep scoring, and then keep scoring some more. Granted, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennessee covers the first half line, but I expect the Gators to open it up in the second half. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Welcome to the SEC Mr. Kiffin. Enjoy singing Rocky Top on the bus ride back as your Vols will be 1-2 to start the year and 0-1 in conference play. Don't worry, I know of at least 3 other coaches who want to whoop your behind befor the season is done - Alabama (because you stole Saban's key recruiter), UGA (because you tried to steal one of their top coaches) and South Carolina (and you went after Spurreri's brother-in-law).

4 Unit Play. Over 53.5 West Virginia @ Auburn Tigers (Saturday @ 7:45pm est). Auburn's offense has done some damage in the first two games. They certainly opened a can of whoop-a$$ on Mississippi State. Give Coach Chizik some credit, he has them playing well and unlike Kiffin, he has temporarily silenced his crtics at Aubur. He is also covering spreads for them which I'm sure they appreciate. Auburn is interested in one thing right now - winning and winning big. They have a coach that will continue to have a chip on his shoulder because many Auburn faithful believe he can't coach. After all, he stunk at Iowa State prior to arriving at Auburn. He needs to prove many people wrong and make those who have showed faith in him look good. West Virginia of course is no slouch and this team has put up back to back 30 point games. I expect this game to be high scoring as the Over is 5-0 for the Mountaineers as a dog by this margin, the Over is 4-0 for the Tigers against the Big East - and the over is 4-1 for the Mountaineers against the SEC.

4 Unit Play. Over 53.5 Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday @ 7:45pm est). With 65% of the public on Georgia, I expect the Razorbacks to be very game in a near pick-em. The line is set for a reason and this is a huge game for Arkansas and their coaching staff. The Razorbacks are looking to improve from last year’s disappointing performance and beating Georgia at home would go a long way for the program. Georgia comes off an emotional win over South Carolina. Georgia played poorly in their first road game at Oklahoma State so I expect them to do better here and at the same time, I expect the Razorbacks to be very game. The Over is 5-0-1 for the Bulldogs on a short spread such as this on the road, the Over is 4-0 for the Razorbacks as a home favorite of late and the Over is 7-3 for Arkansas in their last 10 conference games.

4 Unit Play. #138. Take Washington +19.5 over Southern Cal (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). I'll keep this write-up brief. Southern Cal has some quarterback issues as to who is starting this week. Also, I like SC to have a bit of a let down after their huge win over Ohio State and this seems like a solid let down spot on the road. Washington is not a joke this year as they lost by 8 to LSU in a similar game where the spread was roughly the same (+18). Washington remembers the 52-0 dubbing they took on the road last year and will be looking to this game for some revenge. I like Washington to hang tough here as they likely lose this game by 10-12 points as I expect this game to play very similar to the LSU game. Besides, I think Jake Locker is a stud and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as I expect him to shine against quality competition and while the cameras are rolling.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Sports Informer's

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #114 Take Syracuse +3 over Northwestern (Saturday 9/19 7:00 PM)

The “Cuse” took on two Big 10 teams the last two weeks and so far they have 2 straight covers. I believe Minnesota and Penn St are better teams than Northwestern so that makes me like Syracuse. The defense of Syracuse has been surprising and if the “D” can keep them in the game the home team should win this. Northwestern is 2-9 ATS in the month of September and 6-20 ATS following a SU win.

2 Unit Play. #128 Take Iowa -4 ½ over Arizona (Saturday 9/19 12:00 PM CBSC)

Arizona struggles against Big 10 teams and the last time they faced a Big 10 on the road Purdue beat them badly (59-7). Iowa is coming off a road win against Iowa St and Iowa played much better than their week one game against N. Iowa. Arizona St is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Iowa is 30-14 ATS in their last 44 home games.

2 Unit Play. #141 Take Under 51 Nebraska at Virginia Tech (Saturday 9/19 3:30 PM ABC)

We like this game going under just because it will be played in Blacksburgh and the crowd in Blacksburgh will be hostile. Virginia Tech is 4-13 O/U in their last 17 home games.

5 Unit Play. #148 Take Auburn -7 over West Virginia (Saturday 9/19 7:45 PM ESPN2)

(Game of the Week) Both Auburns running backs (McCalebb and Tate) have had great success rushing the ball this season and Saturday night they should have no trouble with the Mountaineers defense. West Virginia defense has given up 20ppg and again if they can’t tackle the run game of the Tigers this game could get out of hand quickly. West Virginia is 3-7 ATS following a SU win.

3 Unit Play. #149 Take Over 52 Tennessee at Florida (Saturday 9/19 3:30 PM CBS)

Florida has had this game circled for a while and the Florida Gators could hit the total by themselves. Florida first two games the Gators have outscored their opponents 118-9 and granted they played two small schools but this shows me that running up a score could be an issue against the Tennessee defense. Florida is 20-8 O/U in their last 28 games and again the Gators will run up this score.

4 Unit Play. #189 Take Cincinnati PK Oregon St (Saturday 9/19 6:45 PM FSN)

Was not a fan on how the Oregon St. Beavers played against UNLV last week! The Beavers defense didn’t show me anything against UNLV and now the Beavers have to prepare for Cincinnati’s QB Tony Pike. Pike is a much better QB then anything UNLV has on their QB roster. Pike picks apart the defense of the Beavers and watch out for Cincinnati’s defense they have only given up 18 points in two games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Scott Sports

SATURDAY

Last week I hit my Dog GOM on San Jose State and this week I have my overall GOM in the Colleges.



5 UNIT PLAY (OVERALL GOM)

AUBURN -7 over West Virginia: The Tigers offense is much improved as they have averaged 43 ppg and 572 ypg so far this year, compared to the 17 ppg and 302 ypg they put up last year. WVA has not looked all that good in the early going and they were really sloppy last week vs the pirates (11 Penalties and 4 TO's) in their come from behind win. Auburn has revenge after last years 31-17 loss, despite jumping out 14-0. WVA is 0-6 as RD's of 4 or more vs an opponent with revenge, while the Tigers are 6-2 with revenge vs an opponnent of a SU & ATS win. My Power Ratings (108-98) call for a 10 point Tigers win and I agree that it will be a double digit win for them.



4 UNIT PLAYS

BAYLOR -10.5 over Uconn: Baylor is 5-0 ATS as favs of 10 or more off a SU dog win & 6-1 ATS as non-conf home favs. The Bears are off a bye, return 18 starters and are facing a UConn team that is without QB Frazer and possibly their top LB. Griffin will have a big game for the Bears, while Baylors D keeps a UConn offense down that has struggled to start the year. Baylor by 14+ here.

UAB +6.5 over Troy: Lasst week I felt the Ponies had enough offense to keep it close vs the Blazers and they did. UAB did have the better offense in that one, but not 12 points better. This week UAB has the better offense once again, only now they are getting points. Webb will have another big game as UAB wins outright vs a Troy team that is just 1-5 ATS as non-conf favs (0-1 this year). My power ratings (86-84) do call for the outright UAB win and I agree.



3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

TEXAS A&M -19.5 over Utah State: Off a tough 4-8 year the Aggies looked good in their opening 41-6 win over New Mexico. This is a hungry team and with 3 easy home dates to start they year they will look to build confidence with some easy wins. Utah State is better than last year, but are really overmatched in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- The Aggies are 12-0 ATS as favs of 27 or less vs a non conf opponent thats off a DD SU loss. Aggies by 24+ here.

WASHINGTON +19.5 over USC: Tough spot for USC here as they are off a hard fought last minute win vs Ohio State. Last year USC was 25 point favs vs Oregon State after playing Ohio State and lost the game outright. Former USC OC Sarkisian is now head mad at Washington and he will have his team ready. Washington is playing very good ball in the early going, after last years 0-12 mark and with another solid game from Locker they should keep this one to less that 2 TD's.

Teaser Of The Week-- 2-0 So Far

3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Baylor -.5, UAB +16.5 & Notre Dame PK



2 UNIT PLAYS

FAU +20.5 over South Carolina: Classic sandwich game for South Carolina as they are between SEC games. The Owls will be a player in the Sun Belt this year and should keep this one close. My PR's have SC by 18 and I feel it will be closer than that despite the Owls 0-13 ATS run in opposing BCS schools stadiums.

FLORIDA -29.5 over Tennessee: The Gators will make Kiffin eat his words in a rout of 35+.



1 UNIT PLAYS

Air Force -17.5 over NEW MEXICO

MARSHALL +3 over Bowling Green

 

[STACKSONDECK]

dover picks



colorodo st +3 3 units
bowling green -2.5 2 units
usc -20.5 1 unit

ytd 2-2-2 - 2 units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL DUNKEL

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Game 473-474: Toronto at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 101.776; BC 112.438
Dunkel Line: BC by 10 1/2; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: BC by 7 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-7 1/2); Over